War in Ukraine. Analysts assessed when US aid would reach the frontline and what impact it would have

Ukraine’s chances of regaining all its lands in the long run depend on the decisions of the West, the Kremlin and Kiev. Analysts of the Institute of Military Research (ISW) write about this in their latest review. They noted that Western media reports that U.S. officials have renewed discussions on the idea of ​​”freezing the borders,” but that the latest U.S. aid package may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all its territories. Therefore, discussions about possible end states of the war are very premature.

US military aid is on its way to Ukraine, but it will take several weeks for it to reach units on the front lines and have a tangible impact on the battlefield.

Analysts believe that the armed forces of Ukraine will first need to use the help of the United States to stabilize the front line and stop the enemy’s advance in the direction of Avdiyivka, especially in the Chasiv Yar district.

In addition, analysts pointed out that the scope of the Russian offensive operation planned for the summer, which is likely to begin in June, also remains unclear. Experts suggested that the Russian military command may actively evaluate and adjust plans for a future offensive in light of the encounter with better-equipped Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine’s armed forces will have to counter this Russian offensive and prevent it from making significant operational progress in the summer months before attempting to seize the initiative and launch a counteroffensive later in 2024 or 2025.

According to ISW analysts, comprehensive and consistent assistance from Western partners will be very important for future Ukrainian counterattacks. “The US and the West will have to respond as Ukrainian military commanders determine the scope and direction of such operations and inform Western partners of Ukraine’s needs weeks and months before future counteroffensive operations,” analysts said.