Let’s imagine the head of the Government, who, while leading the largest right-wing party, is not going through the best of times. The country was shaken by one crisis after another. The head of the government takes unpopular decisions to help a country in trouble. Several ministers have resigned in disgrace under her leadership, and her critics still remember the 2009 financial crisis. New elections are coming, and the party’s ratings are falling. Although the voters are disappointed, the politician stands firmly in the front lines of the party. The party understands: perhaps its policies can be criticized, but this is the only person in the party who is able to establish a relationship with the voters.
If you thought about Ingrida Šimonytė while reading, you are very wrong. This is the story of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel before 2013. elections. True, A. Merkel confidently won them, and later repeated her victory in the 2017 elections.
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In contrast to the Party of the Fatherland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), which had to retreat to the opposition for a long time after each term, and the party’s candidate I. Šimonytė in 2019. performed well in the presidential election only in the first round. So why, with the new presidential elections approaching, does I. Šimonyta and the conservative party need to wade into the same river a second time?
Third in line
I. Šimonytė’s candidacy, which appeared in the primary elections of the TS-LKD held in October of last year, forced the rest of the candidates nominated by the party branches to withdraw without any struggle. The internal elections, called the celebration of democracy, revealed to the public one strong and one weak feature of the party. The strong one is I. Šimonytė, and the weak one is the rest of the party, which has not yet found a card worthy of the presidential election. It seems that the Conservatives have decided to play the game despite the fact that they have the cards in their hands for all to see.
in 2019 in the presidential elections held, three candidates were at the top of the ratings. Only Gitanas Nausėda was ahead of I. Šimonytė, and Saulius Skvernelis, who held the position of prime minister at the time, was in third place. A similar situation has arisen for the Prime Minister of this term – she is third in the polls, behind Igna Vēgėlė and G. Nausėda. The only difference is that before 2019 in the elections, all three candidates, including the prime minister who was in third place, had real opportunities to compete. And this year, I. Šimonytė, who is third in the rankings, according to polls, may face problems even when trying to get to the second round. But she also has exceptional conditions – neither G. Nausėda nor I. Vēgėlė, who will compete with each other due to voters’ sympathies, are not I. Šimonytė’s direct competitors in this fight.
However, this time it was the role of prime minister that deprived I. Šimonyta of all opportunities to appear as a competitive candidate.
“While working in the Government, I try to realize that I am the prime minister of the Republic of Lithuania, not the conservatives, and that even people who have not voted for me and will never vote face the consequences of my decisions,” said I. Šimonytė while presenting her program. Naturally, after the Prime Minister announced her participation in the presidential elections, the opposition poured in the same criticism that TS-LKD expressed to S. Skvernelis before participating in the 2019 elections. in the elections – do you want to participate in the presidential elections, prime minister? Resign. However, this time it was the role of prime minister that deprived I. Šimonyta of all opportunities to appear as a competitive candidate.
Let’s take a look at the ratings: just six months after starting work in the Government, the public’s assessment of I. Šimonytė leveled off – she was rated favorably and unfavorably by almost the same number of respondents, and already the next month the scales tipped over and her rating became negative (in June 2021, she was rated favorably by 38.8 percent of respondents, and 41.6 percent were unfavorable). S. Skvernelis received a negative evaluation for the first time half a year before 2019. presidential elections (in December 2018, 36.8 percent of people rated the policy favorably, and 40.2 percent unfavorably) – two years after starting work in the Government.
As Professor Tomas Janeliūnas of Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI) told IQ, such a low rating does not necessarily mean that I. Šimonytė herself is to blame for her negative image. “I. Šimonyte more often had to deal with the problems caused by the party, the political scientist taught, adding that her assessment is also affected by the public’s prejudice against conservatives, which I. Šimonyte has to absorb. “And in general, the head of the government is responsible for everything that happens in politics at that time.”
Advance trust
Under the leadership of I. Šimonyte, the state faced endless challenges: managing the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the influx of migrants. Although at first it seemed that the Government was putting all its efforts into controlling one crisis, later it started to look like it was putting no less effort into causing other crises. “The party with I. Šimonyte was more successful than I. Šimonyte with the party,” joked T. Janeliūnas.
TS-LKD has unconditional trust in I. Šimonytė – this is evidenced by the party’s financial support for I. Šimonytė’s election campaign. At the time of writing this article, the budget of I. Šimonytė’s election campaign was the largest compared to other candidates – more than 155 thousand. EUR, of which 150 thousand euros was given by the party, and this is the largest grant given by the party in this election.
According to IQ, VU TSPMI docent Mažvydas Jastramskis, the trust expressed by the party and I. Šimonytė’s participation in the elections should also be evaluated taking into account the prime minister’s further role in the party: “If I understand correctly, there is a provision in this place that I. Šimonytė should participate in the elections of conservative chairpersons. It is always possible to talk about the fact that maybe the next leader would be more popular. But then the question is, is there another candidate in the party who has the confidence and experience to take over from Gabriel Landsberg?”
M. Jastramskis singles out another problem, which is also solved by the personality of I. Šimonytė. “In the past, she has always been distinguished by the fact that she gets sympathy from younger voters in big cities. And traditionally, the conservatives did worse until 2016,” the interviewer added.
However, one of the largest parties in Lithuania, in order to show its maturity and continuity, must have its own candidate. Just by announcing I. Šimonytė’s candidacy, TS-LKD avoided the embarrassing scenario of Vilijas Blinkevičiūtė and the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP). However, in contrast to LSDP, which by supporting the current president hopes to lay the foundation for good relations in the future, if they have to form a coalition after the Seimas elections, TS-LKD’s motive is different – to lose, but not remain crushed. As T. Janeliūnas stated, this shows TS-LKD’s determination to defend its positions to the end, even knowing that there are few chances in the elections: “This is a natural desire to participate in the political debate, to maintain the voters’ attention, to use the opportunity to defend its position once again. Otherwise, it would be a political recognition that that’s all – we’ve had enough, we don’t want anything anymore, we accept the label of losers and wait for the end of our term.”
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