Military experts: The main forces have reached the limits of their capabilities

Ukrainian forces are attacking Novocherkassk (only about 30 km from the brain center of the aggressor’s war against Ukraine, Rostov-on-Don). In the morning, the electrical infrastructure was attacked by drones, after which a fire broke out. In the second half of the day, powerful explosions were also heard.

Kyiv was attacked by missiles, two missiles were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense. The missiles are said to have come from Crimea. Later, material appeared that identified the wreckage of the most modern Russian missile “Zirkon”.

These missiles were added to the arsenal of the Russian forces only in 2023. in January, when the Kremlin trumpeted that it was unstoppable.

It must be said that the missile is launched from the universal launch complex “3S-14” adapted for ships, which are installed on carriers – nuclear cruisers and nuclear submarines belonging to the Northern Fleet. The Russians do not have ships of this type in the Black Sea Fleet, as they are intended for operations in the oceans.

The effective firing range of the “Zirkon” missile is up to 1000 km, so this missile could not fly from the Arctic or the Pacific Ocean. Thus, it is almost certain that the missile was launched from the ground (for example, from the already mentioned 3S-14 launch complex adapted for this purpose). Public sources claim that such a launch possibility was tested, but even a scientist like A. Kovalenko does not have accurate information on how exactly this missile could have been launched.

By the way, this is already the second confirmed attack of the Zircon missile on Ukraine. The first was executed in 2023. December. So, it seems that the aggressor not only tested, but also systematically uses “Zirkon” missiles, possibly launched from a land-based complex. On the one hand, this is good news for NATO – such a change of platform shows that in the near future Russia does not have the ability and is not going to compete with the United States for control of the oceans or at least try to effectively limit NATO operations. On the other hand, Ukrainians are not better off because of it.

Cremation. The Russians continue their attacks in the Terni – Yampolivka section. A couple of days ago, they introduced a reserve into the battle (units of the 272nd motorized rifle regiment of the 47th tank division), but the situation has not changed fundamentally. Although paying dearly, Ukrainian defenders maintain their positions.

Lysychansk. The Russians again hit the defense of the Ukrainian forces in Bilohorivka and in the Spirne-Vesele sections, but without results.

Bachmut. Northern flank. Despite the heavy losses, the aggressor’s paratroopers continue to try to advance towards Chasiv Yar. The occupiers are bringing in reserve units, indicating that the main force has already reached its limits.

Southern flank. Clashes continue, no changes in the contact line.

Avdijivka – Vuhledar. Northern flank. Establishing themselves along the Durna River, the Russians begin to pressurize the Ukrainians near Berdychye more and more. As experts predicted, the occupiers are trying to bypass the Ukrainian fortified area from the north. Heavy fighting continues.

Center. Tedious battles take place in Pervomaiske, on the contact line without changes.

Southern flank. The Russians managed to reach the center of the settlement of Novomychailivka, they are trying to establish themselves here. Also, the aggressor managed to advance in the northeastern approaches of this settlement. Thus, the Russians took another step towards their goal – Konstiantinivka and the road leading through it to Vuhledar.

Clashes continue in the Robotynė wedge, the situation is not easy. The Russians also try to attack near Staromajorska, but the Ukrainians defend themselves.

Without changes. The question of the further fate of the Ukrainian piers is even more relevant here than in the Robotynė wedge. Experts have written about this more than once. Maybe waiting for the vegetation to green up and it will be easier for the Ukrainians to operate on the Dnipro islands, thereby expanding the bridgeheads?

“We’ll live – we’ll see,” experts write.