Euroleague 2023-2024 the regular season is coming to an end, and the introduction of the playoffs in the final stage creates enormous intrigue.
Although only 7 teams have secured a place in the playoffs, Bologna’s “Virtus” and Vitoria’s “Baskonia” have 99.8 and 97.1 percent chances of being there, respectively, so it seems that the remaining clubs are fighting for the only ticket.
As a result, with three rounds left, 6 teams are fighting for the ticket, including Kaunas “Žalgiris”.
Kaunas Žalgiris / Schedule
BasketNews number analyst Laurynas Sinkevičius calculated the teams’ chances of jumping on the relegation train.
Calculation
The following factors were taken into account when calculating the teams’ chances of qualifying for the playoffs:
- Home/Away record
- Point average
- Average utility scores
- Number of attacks (according to hackastat.eu)
- Attack rating per 100 attacks (according to hackastat.eu)
- Defense rating per 100 attacks (according to hackastat.eu)
Finally, the algorithm calculates the probabilities for the team to win against the opponent based on 100 thousand. different scenarios.
It should be noted that the calculation method does not include potential situations where teams are tied for wins after the regular season finish.
10. Milan “Emporio Armani” (14-17)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 13.1%
Remaining competitors: Zalgiris (I), Virtus (N), Maccabi (I)
The Milan team, which was outside the relegation zone for almost the entire season, rose to 10th place. Nevertheless, the chances of Ettore Messina’s army holding on here are quite slim.
The Italian club has the returns of Nikola Mirotic and Shavon Shields and has won three of its last four games, with the victories coming against capable opponents.
11. Partizan Belgrade (14-17)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 54.1%
The remaining contenders: Olympiakos (N), ALBA (I), Valencia (N)
Last season, Partizan started playing its best basketball in the spring and made it to the playoffs. This year, at least not yet.
Nevertheless, the Štark Arena remains packed, with two games left for the Serbian club.
This fact is Partizan’s biggest argument as to why he has the best chance of taking the 10th spot.
Although the schedule is not the easiest, no one would be surprised if Željko Obradović finishes with three wins.
12. Istanbul “Anadolu Efes” (14-17)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 33.7%
The remaining contenders: Baskonia (I), Fenerbahce (I), Crvena Zvezda (N)
Anadolu Efes had a seven-game losing streak during the winter, but managed to bounce back. They have won 7 times in their last 11 matches.
Nevertheless, the playoffs still look like a very high mountain and the Turkish club can practically not make mistakes anymore.
13. Valencia (14-18)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 0.6%
The remaining contenders: ASVEL (N), Partizan (I)
Although Valencia are still in 13th place, their defeat against Maccabi on Wednesday was a huge blow to their relegation ambitions.
Small odds remain, but Valencia have won just 2 of their last 9 matches.
14. Bayern Munich (13-17)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 1.5%
The remaining contenders: Barcelona (N), Panathinaikos (N), Monaco (I)
The rest of Bayern’s schedule is certainly not a cakewalk. The Bavarians will meet three opponents from the strongest six. Each of them will have a reason to win, which greatly complicates the German chances.
Nevertheless, Bayern have won 9 times in 15 home games this season, with two more games to go, so it is too early to write off the Bavarians.
15. Kaunas “Zalgiris” (13-17)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 0.2%
The remaining contenders: Emporio Armani (N), Monaco (I), Real Madrid (N)
“Žalgiris” is playing a live-or-die match against the Milan club today, and a 6-point defeat would close even theoretical hopes.
But in general, a defeat would really kill the hope that was revived last week. According to BasketNews calculations, “Žalgiris” has 70.3 percent. chance to win against Milan team.
Like Valencia and Bayern, Zalgiris probably needs to win their remaining games.
Looking at the rest of the contenders, it sounds like a huge challenge. 0.2 percent the odds sound poor, but there are reasons for that.
Technically, Zalgiris can finish the season ninth, but it is very unlikely. This requires three victories of the Lithuanian champions and, first of all, all three defeats of the Basques.
The probability that the Basques will win at least one match is 87.5%.
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Tags: Probability theories chances playoffs News
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