A terrorist attack in Moscow poses a threat to Putin – it seems that the Russian alliance is falling apart

March 22 gunmen opened fire at the Crocus City Hall concert hall, killing 143 people and injuring at least 205 others, Russian officials said.

ISIS-K, a branch of the Islamic State group, claimed responsibility for the attack. The US also claimed the group was behind the attack, citing intelligence.

Citizens of Tajikistan

Business Insider, citing Russian state media, said the four suspects were identified as citizens of Tajikistan.

This Central Asian country has deep historical ties to Russia and was once part of the Soviet Union. It is now part of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

The fact that the attackers were from Tajikistan could cause a lot of tension between that country and Russia.

Tajikistan has already tried to distance itself from the attack

Tajikistan’s foreign ministry said reports that its nationals were involved in the attack were “false”, independent Russian portal The Moscow Times reported.

The country’s interior ministry also said two of the suspects initially named by Russian media were in Tajikistan at the time of the attack.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon told Vladimir Putin that “terrorists have no nationality, no homeland, no religion.”

Isolated Russia

While its ties with China and North Korea may have strengthened, Russia has become even more isolated on the world stage since the 2022 nuclear deal. launched a large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.

Even longtime allies with close cultural and economic ties, including Tajikistan, have expressed frustration.

in 2022 in October, it appeared that E. Rahmon pointed a finger at V. Putin, demanding respect for his country. According to Mail Online, Rahmon said Tajikistan had to “beg” Russia to attend the forum in Tajikistan.

“We are never treated as strategic partners!” No offense, but we want to be respected!” he said.

The alliance is falling apart

Russia’s relations with other CSTO members are also becoming increasingly strained, and experts on Russia and post-Soviet states previously told Business Insider that the alliance was falling apart.

Some of these experts said that the CSTO members, looking at the invasion of Ukraine, believe that now Russia is unlikely to be able to protect them and may even decide to attack them.

Earlier this year, Armenia’s president said the country had frozen its participation in the CSTO after frequent criticism from Russia and the alliance.

The fact that the suspects in the attack are citizens of Tajikistan does not rule out the involvement of ISIS. Neither ISIS nor the United States have commented on the nationality of the attackers, and ISIS has been recruiting in the country, The Guardian reported.

Russia is also trying to poke its fingers into Ukraine. Putin said over the weekend that the attackers had fled to Ukraine after the attack and that Kyiv had helped them escape.

Ukraine denies any involvement in the attack

Russian analysts predicted after the attack that Putin would try to blame Ukraine to avoid responsibility and use it to rally support for his war.

Experts also said ISIS likely took advantage of Russia’s distraction from the war in Ukraine. Vera Mironova, a researcher at Harvard University’s Davis Center, told the Financial Times that ISIS believed this would make it relatively easy to strike Moscow.

At the time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Russia could have stopped the attack if it had not attacked Ukraine.

“The hundreds of thousands of Russians who are now killing themselves on Ukrainian soil would certainly be enough to stop any terrorists,” he said.