In recent months, both in Lithuania and in Europe, there have been a lot of discussions and deliberations about how we, the NATO countries, are ready to repel a possible Russian attack if Vladimir Putin decides to test the unity of the NATO countries.
If Russia were to decide to attack NATO, most experts are convinced that it would most likely be the Baltic countries, which have fewer opportunities and worse geographical conditions to counter an attack by Putin’s army.
We are an example for other nations that the Russians want to erase
In the news portal tv3.lt show “33min. Saulius Guzevičius, the former commander of the special operations forces, who visited with Artūrs Anužius, is convinced that Lithuania is in a significantly greater danger than the other Baltic countries – Estonia or Latvia. First of all, because after occupying Lithuania, Russia would connect the Kaliningrad region with Belarus and fence off other NATO countries from Poland.
In addition, according to the reserve colonel, we are an asset to the Putin regime because of our great historical past and achievements.
“We have a land corridor with NATO, we are a bad example because of our medieval weight. And historically, three raids on Moscow, during Algird’s time, and a lot of all kinds of things. You remember when they occupied the GDR and Poland, Catherine II even allowed the Poles to keep their formal kingdom within the Russian Empire, they were even allowed to keep some troops. What have they done to us? They wanted to annihilate us completely so that Lithuania would not exist. They divided us into provinces and then the name of Lithuania disappears. Lithuania is no more, there is Vilnius, Kaunas governorate,” Saulius Guzevičius recalled the story.
The officer, who received several medals and was awarded an order, says that Lithuania has always been the country that was not afraid of Russia and was at the forefront of the fight.
“They don’t want Lithuanians to remain as such, they wanted to do with Lithuania what they want to do with Ukraine. They don’t change and we are that forever bad example. In 1990, who was the first to declare independence? We, everyone else, are watching from the sidelines and this is an example that the Russians want to erase, an example for other nations,” asserts Saulius Guzevičius.
We have to think about the worst case scenario
As a result, the officer who headed the strategic communication department claims that Lithuania needs to be ready for attacks from Russia, as it has been training with Belarus for a long time to occupy the territory of Lithuania.
“Hybrid attacks, of course, in order to achieve other goals, introduce instability or simply check NATO. – Take a piece of land? – Yes, a territorial claim, the Vilnius region – what they worked on all the time during the “Zapad” exercises. – To occupy the Vilnius region? – Yes, and then the entire territory. You can look at the scenario of 2009, litvinism is not heard yet, but there is already the occupation of the Vilnius region, the cutting off of the territory and tactical nuclear strikes on our Polish neighbors”, says Saulius Guzevičius.
The founder of the Special Operations Forces agrees with the warning of US Reserve General Ben Hodges that Lithuania needs to be ready to fight off a Russian attack alone for at least two weeks.
“Everybody tells us, and we ourselves as the military have to think about the worst case scenario. The first days, the first hours are yours, how you show up. NATO Article 5 is not automatic and it will take some time to be voted on and accepted. Of course, we know the movement speeds of ground forces, they are not lightning fast, even spec. a certain time is calculated for the forces, which must be lightning fast”, – tv3.lt in the program “33min. with Artūrs Anužius” said Saulius Guzevičius.
But even if additional ground forces from the Allies are required to wait more than two weeks, the reserve colonel hopes that the quick response of the US Air Force will help us.
“The strongest message was sent by the Americans to Russia in 2014, when Crimea was occupied. It was occupied there for 16-17 hours, before the Russians had time to fully occupy it, at that time four F-15 fighters, American fighters with NATO flags were on duty in Šiauliai. Crimea was not yet fully occupied, the Americans volunteered and permission was given for six more F-15 fighters to land in Šiauliai. “These ten F-15s in tandem with Aitvars squadrons are a terrible thing for Russian armored columns,” said Saulius Guzevičius.
The ostrich method has not helped anyone yet
But the biggest danger when it comes to allied aid is Western Europe’s willingness to fight not only for Ukraine or its allies, but also to defend itself.
“It’s the ostrich method, head in the sand in Western Europe. The threat is obvious, the situation is getting worse and for some reason some countries don’t want to think about it, they would like it not to happen and to close the curtain, but it is. Such a delay and avoidance of starting a military industry and helping Ukraine, and the restoration of conscripts, the production of those weapons for themselves, on the contrary, that delay can provoke a larger-scale conflict. You already smell fear and then the killer instinct appears in the Russians, it sharpens”, – said Saulius Guzevičius about the weakness of the Europeans.
A former special operations commander says that by acting uncertainly and fearing war, we Europeans are only encouraging Putin to use intimidation and maybe even start another war.
“One of the types of people is called avoidance – avoidance. A person, if he finds himself in a leadership position and has this avoidance, it is a very high risk because he will avoid any conflict situation and in the final it still comes to a fight. I think that what we are observing in Western Europe is in most cases avoidance when decisive positions should be shown”, asserts Saulius Guzevičius.
Putin’s regime closely follows the situation in our country, what is happening in other European countries, so the reserve colonel is convinced that Russia attacks what it considers to be soft and easily destroyed targets.
“Such an ostrich method has not helped anyone, I would suggest that you read the history textbooks about wars, because there are always conflicts somewhere, unfortunately, they always happen and usually soft targets are attacked.” Those who are not prepared, who have no motivation, who have no political will, it is so easy to eat. Why attack an opponent who has lost everything, where you will have huge losses?”, said Saulius Guzevičius.
In the news portal tv3.lt show “33min. with Artūrs Anužius”, the former founder of the special operations forces spoke a lot about the priorities of Lithuanian defense and the army, what do we need first – air defense or a Leopard tank battalion? Saulius Guzevičius also spoke on the show about the threats posed by Belarusian litvinism and direct territorial claims to the Vilnius Region.
More about geopolitics and relations with neighbors, wars and Western countries have been discussed more than once in “33min. with Artūrs Anužius” shows. National defense and preparation for a possible Russian attack were discussed with Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anušauskas and defense experts Gintars Ažubalis and Vaidotas Malinionis.
Former army commander Jonas Vytautas Žukas talked about the shortcomings and priorities of the Lithuanian army on the show. The military historian Robertas Petrauskas revealed more about the coming wars and the fall of the Western powers. In addition, economics professor Raimondas Kuodis told how Lithuania manages to maintain its statehood and healthy institutions.
“33 min. with Artūras Anužius” watch every Wednesday at 7 p.m. on the news portal tv3.lt and on the TV3 Play platform. The show is on Thursdays at 7 p.m. you can find it on TV3’s YouTube channel.
Tags: founder special operations forces Putins hatred Lithuania nations Russians erase
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