2023-24 The EuroLeague regular season has reached its most important stage, and there are still many unknowns.
Real Madrid is the only team that is certain of their position as they have secured first place and a place in the playoffs.
But plenty of other teams continue to fight for a spot in the playoffs or playoffs. Kaunas “Zalgiris” also aims to extend the season.
Three-pointers are being shot this season
| Hits: | 8.3 |
| Accuracy: | 36.2% |
| League position: | 15 |
| Best achievement: | 15 |
| Worst Achievement: | 4 |
| Hits the most: | Mike James |
This time, BasketNews takes a look at the EuroLeague playoff race, where several teams are still fighting for a spot in the top six.
BasketNews data analyst Laurynas Sinkevičius contributed to the analysis to calculate each team’s chances of earning a spot in the playoffs.
Calculation
The following factors were taken into account when calculating the teams’ chances of qualifying for the playoffs:
- Home/Away record
- Point average
- Average utility scores
- Number of attacks (according to hackastat.eu)
- Attack rating per 100 attacks (according to hackastat.eu)
- Defense rating per 100 attacks (according to hackastat.eu)
Finally, the algorithm calculates the probabilities for the team to win against the opponent based on 100 thousand. different scenarios.
It should be noted that the calculation method does not include potential situations where teams are tied for wins after the regular season finish.
Probability of being in the playoffs: 81.8%
The remaining contenders: Virtus (away), Bayern (away), ALBA (home)
The PAO case is a bit different from the others. Since the Athens club has a negative away record (7-8) and the Greek team will face two good home teams (Virtus, 12-3 and Bayern, 9-6), the algorithm gives Panathinaikos 81.8% the probability of entering the top six.
Realistically, Panathinaikos should and can finish the regular season with 3 wins out of 3 possible and secure not only a place in the playoffs, but also home field advantage in them.
3. Monaco (20-11)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 99.8%
The remaining contenders: ASVEL (home), Zalgiris (away), Bayern (away)
Monaco have everything in their hands and the numbers are also on their side. According to the algorithm, it can be said that the Monaco club is almost guaranteed to participate in the playoffs.
By finishing in 6th position in the regular season, “Monaco” would guarantee itself a place in next year’s Euroleague.
The team defended by Donatas Motiejūnas has won 9 times out of the last 10 meetings, and its remaining opponents are not among the strongest.
Probability of being in the playoffs: 97.0%
The remaining contenders: Bayern (away), Maccabi (home), ASVEL (away)
The Catalans have recently suffered two consecutive defeats, costing them second place in the table, where they have been for most of the season.
Nevertheless, the numbers and the schedule are in Barcelona’s favor. Two victories may be enough for Roko Jokubaitis’ club to qualify for the playoffs. Winning at least against the teams of Munich and Villerban must be Barca’s biggest goal.
5. Olympiakos of Piraeus (19-12)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 36%
The remaining contenders: Partizan (away), Crvena Zvezda (away), Fenerbahçe (home)
Olympiakos’ schedule is tough, no question about that. The remaining strong rivals are the reason why the Piraeus team’s chances of going directly to the playoffs are assessed a little worse, compared to other teams currently in the top six.
Crvena Zvezda has no chance to fight for the next round, but Roko Giedraitis’ club will play the last home match of the season against Olympiakos.
At that time, the last game of the regular season against Fenerbahce could be crucial for the Greek club, after which it will be determined who will advance to the playoffs without a relegation battle.
6. Fenerbahçe Istanbul (19-12)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 92%
The remaining contenders: ALBA (home), Anadolu Efes (away), Olympiakos (away)
According to the algorithm, it is obvious that Šarūnas Jasikevičius’ club should advance to the playoffs directly, but it will still have to be proven on the pitch.
The confrontations with “Anadolu Efes” and “Olympiakos” will be crucial, on which the outcome of the regular season of the Lithuanian-led team will depend.
7. Maccabi Tel Aviv (19-13)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 93.4%
The remaining contenders: Barcelona (away), Emporio Armani (home)
Maccabi have been in great form over the past month and are currently on a six-match winning streak. This allowed the Israeli club to significantly strengthen its position.
Oded Kattash’s side have a good chance of finishing in the top six, but they will probably need both wins in the last two rounds.
Again, it should be noted that the calculation method does not include potential situations where teams are tied after the regular season finish.
Anyway, the Tel Aviv team has been a tough nut to crack for everyone over the past month.
8. Bologna “Virtus” (17-14)
Probability of being in the playoffs: 0.01%
The remaining contenders: Maccabi (home), Emporio Armani (away), Baskonia (home)
There were days when Luca Banchi’s side were in fourth position, but many things have changed, including the sporting form of the Virtus game.
The Bologna club have lost 7 of their last 10 matches and are now on a four-game losing streak. The Italian team has almost no chance to finish the regular season in the top six.
Despite this, it is almost certain that Virtus will still compete in the playoffs, where they will be able to show their best game that they showed in the first round of the regular season.
9. Vitoria “Baskonia” (16-15)
Odds of being in the playoffs: 0.01%
The remaining contenders: Anadolu Efes (home), Real (away), Virtus (away)
Obviously, a ticket to the playoffs would require an absolute miracle for the Basques, and the chances of that are too minimal.
Baskonia’s real goal should be to climb to the 7th or at least the 8th position. This would guarantee Tad Sedekerskis’ team home advantage in the playoffs.
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