Andrius Kubilius warns: “If Europeans understand what is at stake if Ukraine does not win”

The situation in Ukraine, whether we look at the military or the international field, looks quite different. Russian forces have the initiative in many places on the battlefield, negotiations on membership of the European Union (EU) seem to have moved on for an indefinite period, the expected invitation to NATO at the Washington summit, now it also seems like a very vague concept. What would be your overall assessment of the situation?

I would not be so pessimistic about the EU, something may still start in June. However, it seems to me that today’s priority should be the battlefield. The question is simple – what will be the Western military support for Ukraine. If you look at the numbers, how much that support was provided, it was enough to keep Ukraine from losing, but it is still a long way from victory. Russians spent over 100 billion last year. EUR, Ukraine allocated 40 billion euros, and the EU and the USA gave the same amount, the total amount is 80 billion. Euros.

It seems to me that the main issue that the West needs to solve today is to find a way to increase the military support to Ukraine to 100 billion per year. euros. This is 2.5-3 times more than what has been allocated so far. The USA is on the wrong side of democracy, so Europe must think that it may have to carry such a burden on its own shoulders. Europe can do it, but it is not that easy.

There are 3 ways to finance Ukraine. The first is from the current EU budget, but there is no money in the budget. The second is to freeze 300 Russian billions, 200 of which are in Brussels itself. And the third way, it seems to me the most realistic for the European Union, is to go to the markets and borrow money in your own name, investors are ready for that. <...>

A considerable obstacle in the West is a psychological one, and great efforts must be made. If it is not overcome, those 100 billion we may not have euros. There is great fear in the West, wondering what will happen if Ukraine wins against Russia, the crushing of Russia and the possible fall of the Putin regime. There are many fears about what will happen next. <...>

If the Europeans understand what is at stake if Ukraine does not win, perhaps changes will begin. One analyst very correctly stated: the problem of the West is that we can see a pro-Ukrainian coalition, but there is still no anti-Putin coalition.

To summarize our conversation, the only real short-term solution is for the European Commission, the member countries, the Council of Leaders to decide to borrow on behalf of the EU for the benefit of Ukraine, yes?

I would say that now this is the most important decision, because if the West is unable to finance Ukraine’s defense normally, then everything else is not very valuable. The question of victory is the most important thing at the moment. In my opinion, this is the issue for which Lithuania must take the initiative and gather like-minded people.