The defense of the village was neglected.
Seizing the opportunity, the Russian army’s 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade rushed several kilometers along the railway west of Avdiyivka and captured most of Ocheretyn – and possibly also Novobachmutivka, a village south of Ocheretyn.
This is the fastest penetration of Russian forces into Ukrainian territory in recent months and threatens to destroy Ukraine’s defense line west of Avdiyivka. The line, which had held for months, now has a deep and widening gap.
“Pandora’s box is open,” commented Ukrainian analysis group Deep State.
To understand how scared Ukrainian commanders are at the moment, remember the brigade they rushed into battle north and west of Ocheretyn, the 100th Mechanized Brigade. The brigade is one of the newest and most lightly equipped brigades in the Ukrainian army – and it seems ill-suited for the kind of front-line operation its commanders are asking it to do.
It is reported that the loss of Ocheretyne was not the fault of the 47th Mechanized Brigade. This brigade, which is the main operator of American armored vehicles in Ukraine, was under orders to withdraw from Ocheretyn to redeploy to the rear and rest after spending almost a year in combat.
The 115th Mechanized Brigade was to take the place of the 47th Mechanized Brigade at Ocheretyne, smoothly filling the same combat positions with sufficient troops to maintain the integrity of the defensive line west of Avdijivka.
However, not everything went according to plan. According to Mykola Melnykos, the famous company commander of the 47th Mechanized Brigade, who lost a leg during the Ukrainian counterattack last year, “certain units just got lost.”
The failure of the 115th Mechanized Brigade to hold the line practically invited the Russian 30th Mechanized Motorized Rifle Brigade to Occheretyne and caused a panicked reaction from the Ukrainian headquarters. Commanders ordered the battle-weary 47th Mechanized Brigade to turn around and return to the front line. They also ordered the 100th Mechanized Brigade to counterattack.
The 100th Mechanized Brigade is a former territorial brigade and a unit of the US Army National Guard that was transferred to the active military by the Ministry of Defense in Kyiv in late March.
The 100th Mechanized Brigade is not short on experience, with some 2,000 of its soldiers repeatedly taking part in Russia’s 26-month-long wider war against Ukraine. But it lacks the heavy equipment — Western-made tanks, combat vehicles and artillery — that give elite units like the 47th Mechanized Brigade great combat power.
Still, the 100th Mechanized Brigade fought hard, holding off the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade and other units of the Russian 41st Joint Army, which were attempting to push into the village of Prokhres, seven miles to the west along the same railway connecting Avdiyivka with Ocheretyn. .
“The attempt to advance towards Prohres was halted by a successful counterattack by the 100th Mechanized Brigade,” Deep State reported.
It is not clear what may happen next in Ocheretyne and its surroundings. For now, Ukrainian forces “are holding on to the western part of the village and controlling the southern part of the village,” the Center for Defense Strategies of Ukraine noted.
However, the fact that the Ukrainians had to rush into battle with a relatively weak brigade speaks to the paucity of Ukrainian reserves west of Avdiyivka. For their part, the Russians keep the entire 90th tank division in reserve in the vicinity of Avdijivka.
If the 90th Panzer Division enters Ocheretyne before Ukraine’s eastern command mobilizes additional reinforcements, the Russian penetration could expand to a full-scale breakthrough that would force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to retreat westward to another line of defense.
The biggest hope for Ukrainians is 1 billion. dollars worth of new munitions that the United States hastily handed over to Ukraine hours after the US Congress finally approved additional US aid to Ukraine on Tuesday after a six-month delay.
The Ukrainian brigades around Ocheretyne will need every bullet, shell and missile. Especially for the lightly armed 100th Mechanized Brigade.
Prepared according to information from Forbes.
