During the survey conducted by “Baltijos researches” commissioned by Elta, it was asked to assess the probability that Russia could attack Lithuania in the near future. When answering the question, the respondents had to indicate a specific number on a scale of 100 percent, where zero means that Russia will definitely not attack Lithuania, and 100 percent means that such a scenario is inevitable in the next few years.
The survey data revealed that almost a tenth (9%) of the population do not think that Russia could attack Lithuania in the next few years. According to them, such a probability is zero.
A little more than a third (34%) of the respondents believe that the probability of war in Lithuania is small, but it exists. This part of the population estimated the probability of a Russian attack from 1 to 30 percent.
On the other hand, about a quarter of the surveyed residents of the country are convinced that the probability of military aggression in Lithuania is average (from 31 to 50 percent).
14 percent citizens say that a Russian attack in the near future is even very real. According to them, this probability reaches more than 50 percent. Finally, there are only one percent of those who believe that war in Lithuania is inevitable.
Another fifth (18%) of the respondents did not have an opinion or did not answer this question.
Residents of big cities view Russian military aggression as unlikely
The Baltic Research survey shows that Lithuanian men (49 percent), residents of big cities (48 percent), and respondents with higher education (51 percent) rate the likelihood of Russian military aggression as unlikely. It is the population belonging to these groups of society who more often claimed that the probability that Russia will attack Lithuania ranges from 1 to 30 percent or is equal to zero in general. In total, there were 43 percent of such residents.
On the other hand, people over 50 years old, rural residents and citizens with an average family income were more likely to rate the probability of aggression as average (from 31 to 50 percent).
And the fact that Russia will probably encroach on Lithuania belonging to NATO in the near future was mentioned more often by residents of smaller towns.
More often, women, young people under 30 years of age, students, residents of Russian and Polish nationalities did not have an opinion or did not want to answer this question.
The assessment of Russian threats is influenced by the disagreements of politicians
Commenting on the survey results, Rasa Ališauskienė, director of “Baltic Research”, says that the distribution of opinions of the population shows that the shock caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine has passed. Now, the sociologist observes, both the Russian threat and the possibility of the Kremlin’s military aggression are assessed in Lithuania in the context of ongoing political debates.
“People now judge many things through the prism of elections. Especially during election season when politicians speak in different voices. As a result, in the long run, people begin to pay more attention not only to what is said, but also to what the politician is talking about,” the sociologist told Eltai.
Therefore, according to her, in certain cases, society can assess threats to national security not only based on geopolitical arithmetic.
“If you don’t like the speaker, then his opinion seems unfounded or exaggerated or simply dismissed. This factor is very important. People would have more confidence in security matters if experts or analysts spoke. “Politicians do not add credibility, even when everything is said correctly,” she said.
The debate over defense funding may have raised questions about the Russian threat to the public
R. Ališauskienė admits that the assessment of Russia’s threat is also influenced by politicians’ discussions on defense funding. As the majority of politicians claim that an agreement on defense funding can be reached even after the Seimas elections, the country’s residents naturally begin to doubt whether the messages sent by experts and some government representatives regarding the deteriorating geopolitical situation are really serious.
“Now the politicians agree that defense needs to be strengthened, but that’s all they agree on. Is it now or tomorrow, in what ways… These questions lead to a kind of cacophony”, noted the director of “Baltijos researches”.
Supporters of different parties may assess the Russian threat differently
On the other hand, R. Ališauskienė observes, opinions regarding the country’s security level or the same threats posed by Russia may also depend on a person’s party preferences. In other words, the population supporting social democrats or conservatives will assess the threats to Lithuania in the same way as the leaders of these parties talk about them.
“Now it can be observed that those who are more inclined to support the ruling party emphasize that threat more and see it as greater than the opposition voters. But it also has to do with speakers. It is natural that if the speaker is the ruling party, he is not an authority for the opposition supporters, then there are other motives – that it is intimidation before the elections just to collect money”, said R. Ališauskienė.
The survey took place in 2024. February 22 – March 5. 1021 Lithuanian residents (18 years and older) were surveyed, the study was conducted at 115 sampling points. The results of the study reflect the opinion of Lithuanian residents aged 18 and older by gender, age and type of settlement. The error of the results does not exceed 3.1 percentage points.
Tags: opinion influenced election season
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