The assumption of military experts: the Russians are preparing for another wave of strikes

The USA has made final decisions on the renewal of military aid to Ukraine. It is possible that the first shipments started traveling to Ukraine even before the official decision was made. However, it is vital to maintain the sustainability, pace and flexibility of supply, responding promptly to the needs of Ukrainians.

It cannot be ruled out that such an “occasion” could be either V. Putin’s “inauguration” (May 7) and/or May 9. (“victory” day). On the other hand, it is likely that using the capabilities of ATACMS, Storm Shadow and drones, the Ukrainians may not remain in debt and strike, for example, Russian military targets in Crimea.

The ratio of the aggressor’s manpower to armor losses indicates that the aggressor’s ability to conduct large-scale full-fledged mechanized operations within a month has been critically reduced. However, due to the continuing hunger of Ukrainians for ammunition and weapons (promises, paper, and money do not make war), fatigue and lack of personnel, the situation on the contact line did not improve.

The aggressor is rapidly developing tactical success in the Pokrovsk-Vuhledar sector. It is very important for the defenders of Ukraine to form a new fortified section covered by air defense as soon as possible. Otherwise, the territorial gains would enable the Russians to attack to the south (Netailovo – Krasnohorivka – Hostre) and occupy the lowland territory along the Vovcha River to Kuravkhove.

The Ukrainians managed to stabilize the situation near Chasiv Yar, they successfully counterattacked near Ivanivsk. The operation of Russian aviation is somewhat limited, but still remains an important factor.

Together with the debilitating attacks of the aggressor and the ability of the Russians to mobilize poorly prepared but abundant reserves, the situation remains difficult.

In the Kupyansk sector, the aggressor started an offensive operation, and the not very successful start of the Ukrainians in defense shows that it will not be easy here either.

Ukrainian forces attacked the aggressor’s facilities in the depth of their defenses. Among them, a mass strike by drones against military objects in the Krasnodar Territory (military airport, fuel factories and storage facilities) stood out.

According to the Russians, during the entire operation, the Ukrainians used 66 drones, individual objects were attacked by swarms of drones. At the same time, the aggressor’s sources have been actively discussing when and where the Ukrainians will launch ATACMS missiles throughout the week. It has been reported that the allies’ strategic reconnaissance UAVs have started to fly more often in the approaches to Crimea.

The occupiers continued to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure (unfortunately, recorded significant damage) and military airports (where “Storm Shadow”/”Scalp” carriers are possibly operating).

It should be mentioned that missile losses decreased significantly (26 and 9), as well as drone losses (144 and 128). True, it should be noted that in the second half of the week, more downed Russian reconnaissance aircraft (Orlan) were recorded, while “Shahed” was seen in Ukrainian space much less than before.

This is possibly related to the reduced stocks of these drones (Russian transport aviation flights to Iran have been unheard of for a long time), and the Russian industry may not be able to meet the needs (remember the Ukrainian drone strike on the Shahed factory a few weeks ago).

If we compare the aggressor’s losses in March and April, the average weekly losses of both missiles (36 and 19) and drones (222 and 194) in April were lower.

Compared to the previous week, Russian manpower losses increased significantly (5,880 and 6,620), respectively, and the average daily loss also increased (840 and 945).

These losses have systematically increased since the beginning of last week until they became very high at the end of the week. These losses last week exceeded the weekly averages of both March and April (6620 and 6340 and 5990).

Russian armored vehicle losses continued to decline and reached record lows. (186 and 145), the average one-day losses also decreased (26.5 and 20.7), respectively, compared to the previous week. March and April weekly loss averages remained similar, but last week’s losses fell short of both of those marks (145 and 247 and 250).

The ratio of Russian manpower to armored vehicle losses increases in seven-mile increments. It was 15-1 three weeks ago, 19.5-1 the second week of the month, and 31.6-1 the day before. This ratio now stands at 45.6:1.

Thus, this gap has already been exceeded in March. (25.6:1) and the overall ratio for April (27.9:1) and shows the Russians’ deepening problems in conducting operations with full-fledged mechanized units.

Compared to the previous week, Russian artillery losses started to grow again (167 and 233), respectively, the average of one day losses increased (23.8 and 33.2).

Losses of Russian indirect fire systems have been systematically increasing since the beginning of the week. Compared to March and April, average weekly losses for artillery systems were similar (233 vs. 221 vs. 231).

In the field of logistic transport, the aggressor’s losses decreased (326 and 280), respectively, the average of one-day losses also decreased (46.5 and 40). These are the lowest losses of the aggressor in April, and they also did not reach the average for the week of March. (280 and 346 and 337).

The losses of the aggressor’s air defense systems remained the same (9 and 9), these Russian losses have not yet reached March. weekly average, but exceeded the April average (9 and 11.7 and 8.25).

The calculations of the dynamics of the aggressor’s losses are based on the data of the General Staff of Ukraine.

Looking at the aggressor’s general decrease in the intensity of strikes in the rear of Ukraine, it can be cautiously assumed that the Russians are regrouping and saving their capabilities for another wave of strikes after causing significant damage to Ukraine’s energy system.

It cannot be ruled out that such an “occasion” could be V. Putin’s “inauguration” (May 7) and/or May 9. (“victory” day). On the other hand, it is likely that by using the capabilities of ATACMS, Storm Shadow and drones, the Ukrainians may not remain in debt and strike e.g. Russian military targets in Crimea.

The ratio of the aggressor’s manpower and armored vehicle losses shows that the aggressor lost the ability to carry out full-fledged offensive operations with mechanized units very quickly – within a month.

This is shown not only by the mentioned numbers, but also by the expansion of the concept of tank-garages (it is recorded that such armor and EW “houses” are also placed on PKM), and public sources record Russian “banzai” attacks on unarmored vehicles. True, the ratio may change, as the aggressor has launched an offensive operation in the Svatovė-Kremina sector, where units of the 1st Guards Tank Army are at the forefront of the attack.

It is encouraging that the losses of the aggressor’s artillery started to grow again (155 mm ammunition arrived?), but it is too early to draw conclusions. Moreover, as the losses of Russian non-armored equipment have significantly decreased, it cannot be ruled out that this is only a concentration of the limited resources available to the Ukrainians.

Despite the positive trends mentioned above and the intended and likely incoming US support to Ukraine, the situation on the contact line has not improved.

The Pokrovsk-Vuhledar sector remained the most problematic for the Ukrainians. The aggressor is rapidly developing tactical success (he pushed the Ukrainians out of part of the highlands to the west and northeast of Ocheretyn, occupied Berdychy, Semenyvka, attacked Keramika) and firmly holds the initiative in his hands.

It is very important for the defenders of Ukraine to form a fortified section covered by air defense as soon as possible while maintaining the line Arkhangelsk – Sokilas and Novopokrovsk – Umansk. Otherwise, a new defense line in the west (Prokhres – Komyshivka – Karlivka) could stop the Russians from advancing west, but would enable them to attack in the south (Netailovo – Krasnohorivka – Hostre) and occupy the lowland territory along the Vovcha river to Kurakhovo.

The Ukrainians managed to stabilize the situation near Chasiv Yar, they successfully counterattacked near Ivanivsk. It cannot be ruled out that the problem of Russian aviation dominance is at least partially solved. However, the Ukrainians’ resources are still limited, they have already brought reserves into the battle, and if they were needed again, they would have to look hard.

The Russians continue their debilitating attacks, and the battle for Avdiyivka has already shown that they are capable of exhausting the Ukrainians despite their losses.

The good news is that the units of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army concentrated in the Kupyansk sector have not been transferred to the main direction of the aggressor’s efforts (Pokrovsk – Vuhledar). The bad news is that the Russians have started an offensive operation in the Kupjansk sector, and the not-so-successful start of the Ukrainians in defense shows that it won’t be easy here either.

Last week, after the US approved 61 billion dollar support package, support began to travel to Ukraine.

Not only that, the Pentagon approved an additional 6 billion USD worth of support to Ukraine (replenishment of ammunition, spare parts and other components for Patriot air defense systems transferred to Ukraine). In addition, information appeared in public sources that 100 units with a range of 300 km could have been secretly transferred to Ukraine even before the approval of the big support package. ATACMS missiles.

The older ATACMS missiles were delivered to Ukraine in the fall. Although the long wait is finally happily over, everything now depends on how quickly all the support reaches Ukraine.

Last week, European countries transferred or committed to transfer additional support.

Denmark allocates an additional 590 million. EUR worth of various military support and 420 mln. euros for the reconstruction of Ukraine and energy infrastructure.

The United Kingdom is preparing a support package that will include 60 light boats, 400 vehicles (including 160 Husky TSV armored jeeps and 162 units of light armored vehicles), 1,600 units. anti-tank and air defense missiles and an additional 500 million pounds sterling for artillery and air defense projects now under development in Europe.

Spain hands over Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine.

Unfortunately, Greece seems to have changed its mind and officially refused to supply Ukraine with the Patriot and S300 systems.