The climatologist already knows what April will be like: he warns everyone

According to the climatologist, “early spring in all its beauty” is the last days of March, and the snow has completely melted, the spring flood has long since ended, the storks have returned, the vegetation is waking up and the meadows and lawns are gradually turning green. In addition, these days the average air temperature in Central Europe and the southern edge of the Baltic region is 8-12 degrees higher than the perennial one.

“This was influenced by very favorable large-scale air transport over Europe, with a deep large-scale upper trough established over SW Europe and the NE Atlantic, and a near-stationary ridge over SE and Central Europe. Such a structure of the high field above Europe led to the push of very warm air masses from North Africa towards Central and North-Eastern Europe”, explains G. Stankūnavičius.

Along with warm air masses, Saharan dust, also known as aerosols, came from Africa to the entire region, including Lithuania.

“Although they are difficult to observe with the naked eye, observations from orbit show this. Special satellite sensors <...> estimate the attenuation of the received signal due to air impurities as it travels through the atmosphere towards the satellite, which is converted into an aerosol optical thickness (AOD) parameter. This parameter is non-dimensional and equal to 0 if there is no aerosol in the air and can exceed 1 or more in case of a very high concentration of aerosol”, says G. Stankūnavičius.

Environmental air pollution with solid particles is high throughout the country on Tuesday, the Environmental Protection Agency informs. Increased pollution has been recorded since March 31, when the daily limit value of particulate matter KD10 was exceeded 1-1.3 times in Kaunas, Klaipėda, Panevėžys, Šiauliai, Jonava, and on April 1. – 1.5-2.7 times in all air quality research stations.

“For comparison, it should be said that in the “native” places, above the deserts of Libya and Algeria, in the absence of dust or sand storms, this parameter reaches 0.3-0.9. True, in the industrial valley of the middle Ganges (India) at the moment, due to strong temperature inversions (in the east), industrial emissions and dry air, the AOD can reach 1.2-1.5″, notes the climatologist.

“A favorable situation for moving aerosols from Africa will last until Monday, after which this parameter will decrease,” says the climatologist.

In other words, the warmest part of the air mass of tropical origin reached Lithuania on the first and second day of Easter, then it will start to cool down. On Monday, starting from the western areas, the wind will weaken, during the day a sea breeze should be felt on the coast.

“If a breeze really forms on Monday, then the maximum air temperature on the coast during the day will only be +10 – +12 degrees. Currently, the surface temperature in the open sea in the territorial waters of Lithuania is only +3.6 – +4.5 degrees”, explains G. Stankūnavičius.

At that time, the weather in Europe is very changeable, and sometimes even dangerous.

“While the European Arctic and Greenland are occupied by a very strong and almost stationary polar anticyclone, central Europe is dominated by a cyclonic field with several localized but intense centers over Western Europe. This distribution of pressure will lead to heavy rainfall and cool weather in Portugal, Spain, France and the British Isles in the coming days. In the Spanish Cantabrian and Nevada mountain ranges, as well as in the Alps and Pyrenees, rain with snow, snow, and in some places even blizzards are expected,” says G. Stankūnavičius.

However, there will be no very severe weather phenomena in Lithuania, and after a rather sudden but short-term cooling of the weather and rain, it will warm up again.

“The zone of significant precipitation will reach Lithuania only on Tuesday. <...> In addition to stronger rain, a gusty and cold northwesterly wind and, in places, drizzle will contribute on Wednesday. The weather will cool down, frosts are possible after it clears up at night, but this sudden cooling of the weather will not last long and the weather is forecast to warm up again towards Atvelykis”, reports the climatologist.

Long-term weather forecast – what will April be like?

Although the last days of March were surprisingly warm, according to G. Stankūnavičius, we should not expect summer heat at the beginning of April.

“There is still a lot of snow and frost in northern and northeastern Europe. Although the water in the North Atlantic is now at least 0.5-1.5 degrees warmer than the multi-year norm in many water areas, it is still very cool, from about +9 – +12 at 50 degrees latitude to +1 – +5 in the zone between northern Norway and of Iceland,” says the climatologist.

“According to the data of long-term forecasts, the current trends of weather change in Europe should persist in the first half of April: it will be warmer in Central and Eastern Europe, and colder in its northern part. The rest of Europe should also warm up in the second half. It is true that in the first half of the month, higher rainfall is forecast in Lithuania, and in the second – close to the norm”, he summarizes.