Analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Russians have stalled their advance on the front and are preparing reserves to try to advance from their bridgehead north of Avdiyivka in the direction of Torecko to supplement Russian offensive operations at Chasiv Yar.
April 30 In the Avdiyivka area, Russian forces did not carry out any confirmed attacks for the first time in several days, and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces carried out more attacks in the direction of Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar than near Avdiyivka.
April 30 The eastern and western reports of the Ukrainian General Staff state that in total during the day, Ukrainian troops repulsed 47 attacks by the Russian Federation in the direction of Avdiyivka and 57 Russian attacks in the direction of Bakhmut, while the Russians made significantly more attacks in the direction of Chasiv Yar.
Analysts note that the one-day report is not enough to identify patterns, but it may indicate that Russian forces have slightly slowed the pace of attacks around Avdiyivka and resumed offensive actions around Chasiv Yar, as predicted by ISW.
From around April 20 Russian forces focused on achieving tactical success near Ocheretyn (northwest of Avdiyivka) and Novokalynovka (north of Avdiyivka), but from April 30. the pace of confirmed progress appears to have slowed.
Russian forces may decide to advance from their bridgehead north of Avdiyivka towards Torecko to supplement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to take a tactical break to concentrate forces for the attack.
Chasiv Yar is an operationally important facility, as it will serve as a springboard for Russian forces to launch offensive operations in Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, which are the strongholds of four major cities in the Donetsk region.
However, Russian forces will likely need a longer break to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional forces to the Ocheretyne area if they decide to try to advance north into the Torecko area.
Other important analyst insights:
- Russian sources claim that on the night of April 29 to 30 Ukrainian forces struck targets in occupied Crimea with short-range anti-aircraft missile systems MGM-140 ATACMS.
- The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan, Sirojiddin Muhriddin, expressed indignation at the behavior of Russian authorities towards migrants from Central Asia, especially citizens of Tajikistan, noting that after March 22. The increased control of migrants living in and entering Russia after the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack continues to strain relations between Tajikistan and Russia.
- Former Prime Minister of Georgia and founder of the political party “Georgian Dream” Bidzina Ivanišvilis during his first public appearance after running for office in 2023. announced his return to Georgian public policy in December, repeated several standard Kremlin information narratives.
- Recently, Russian forces have confirmed that they have advanced near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar and Robotynya.
- April 30 The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Calikov inspected a drone test site in an unnamed territory of occupied Ukraine.
- In an investigation by the Russian opposition publication Važnye istorii, the Kremlin-appointed children’s rights commissioner Marija Lvova-Belova and her sister are accused of deporting Ukrainian adults with special needs to Russia.
