Richard Kemp, who served from 1977-2006, said US and UK munitions would allow Kyiv to stabilize the front line, but not allow it to take back lands seized by Moscow.
The retired colonel warned that if Moscow manages to achieve “significant success” by the summer, the West will no longer be willing to provide funds to Ukraine in the winter.
“While the new aid packages may help reduce this, they will not allow Ukraine to take the initiative and go back on the offensive,” Kemp wrote in the Daily Telegraph newspaper.
There were high hopes for a counterattack
Last summer, he said, there were high hopes that Ukraine would be able to push out Russian forces with a counterattack and create the conditions for victory. That did not happen, and the attack weakened and few positions were taken, he said.
“Heavy Ukrainian losses and ammunition starvation allowed Russian forces to return to the offensive and seize the strategic initiative throughout the war zone. Step by step, they achieved limited but concrete achievements at the front, forcing Ukraine to give up lands, and also caused great damage to Ukrainian infrastructure with air attacks,” said R. Kempas.
Russian air superiority
According to the author of the commentary, while the new aid packages may help reduce damage to infrastructure and stabilize the frontline, they will not allow Ukraine to take the initiative and go back on the offensive. One reason is that Russia has gained air superiority in many areas, and ground-based anti-aircraft defenses will remain inadequate.
“Another reason is that war-weary Ukraine simply does not have enough soldiers and after more than two years of intense fighting, it seems unwilling to start the necessary large-scale mobilization,” claimed R. Kemp.
Almost insurmountable challenges lie ahead, he said. Russia has a booming wartime economy and has now amassed enormous forces that it is willing to sacrifice to achieve Vladimir Putin’s goals. If Moscow manages to achieve major gains in the summer, perhaps including the capture of Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, the West will be less inclined to spend more in the winter.
This bleak outlook will be exacerbated by the additional uncertainty surrounding general elections in the US and the UK, according to the commentator. “It seems that, as in previous wars, Russia will start badly but end well because of the determination that Ukraine’s allies in the West sorely lack,” a former British officer grimly concluded.
US and UK provide new support
On Wednesday, the US Senate approved a $95 billion foreign aid package that includes military support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
It includes 61 billion US dollars in military aid to Ukraine, which the Pentagon says could begin flowing to the war-torn country within days. US President Joe Biden is expected to sign the legislation on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Great Britain also promised Ukraine 500 million. pounds sterling of new military supplies, including long-range missiles and four million rounds of ammunition.
