Ukrainian intelligence is not optimistic – Respublika.lt

The Russian army is moving forward

V. Skibickis predicted that the more successful the Russians will be in Donetsk and Luhansk, the more difficult the situation in Kyiv will be.

“Our problem is very clear – lack of weapons. They always knew that April and May would be difficult,” the general said.

According to him, after the unsuccessful rotation of Ukrainian units near the village of Ocheretyn, the Russians gained a tactical advantage here. According to the general, the Russians broke through the first line of defense and entrenched themselves in 25 square kilometers, and Ukrainian forces are unable to stabilize the situation.

According to V. Skibickis, more than two years have passed since the beginning of the war, the Russian units operate as a unified organism with a clear plan.

According to the military officer, it is only a matter of time before Russia captures the city of Chasov Yar, opening the way to the rest of the other large cities of Donbass. “Not today, and not tomorrow, but everything will be determined by our available reserves and reserves,” he specified.

According to the intelligence representative, Russia is preparing an offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, which should begin in late May or early June. However, he questioned whether the Russians would have the capacity to take a large city.

“A quick operation to invade and retreat is likely. And the occupation of Kharkiv or even Sumy is another matter,” the military officer thought, assuring that Kharkiv is still facing difficult times.

About possible negotiations

Speaking about the possible end of the military conflict, V. Skibickis stated that he does not see a real possibility for Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield.

According to him, such conflicts can only be resolved through negotiations. Ukraine’s chance to recover before 1991. the occupied territories become more and more vague, but even this, according to the military, would not end the war. According to him, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will not start earlier than the second half of 2025, and both countries are currently fighting for a more favorable position before the start of potential negotiations.

V. Skibickis also admitted that he did not see the possibility for Ukraine to win the war alone. In addition, if the neighboring countries that support it start to strengthen their defense industry, they will also be at risk of war.

“We will continue to fight because we have no other choice. We want to live. However, how the military conflict will end does not depend only on us,” V. Skibickis emphasized.

Destabilization plan

According to the military officer, Russia is planning to implement a three-level destabilization plan for Ukraine, and the decisive month will be May.

“The main factor is military. Although the US Congress, albeit belatedly, approved a new military aid package, it will be weeks before it reaches the front,” he clarified.

The second factor, according to V.Skibicki, will be a disinformation campaign directed against the mobilization and legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose term ends on May 20.

The third factor will be Russia’s campaign to isolate Ukraine internationally.