In the first part of its investigation into the political reality of the North Caucasus republic, the Novaya Gazeta Europa newspaper detailed the 47-year-old Kadyrov’s numerous hospitalizations for suspected pancreatic necrosis and how both his and the Kremlin’s public relations teams tried to cover up the Chechen leader’s rapidly deteriorating health.
The publication also named Major General Apti Alaudinov, the commander of Kadyrov’s own Akhmat military unit fighting on the Ukrainian front, as the Kremlin’s preferred successor.
Portal “The Moscow Times” asked well-known experts and activists to give their first impressions and predictions about the future of Chechnya after R. Kadyrov left due to illness.
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov
(12 photos)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
“Putin’s soldier” – Ramzan Kadyrov (photo by SCANPIX)
Tanja Lokšina, Deputy Director of the Europe and Central Asia Division of Human Rights Watch
“I have great respect for the colleagues of Novaya Gazeta, who have been studying Chechnya with professional dedication for many years and who really know Chechen affairs well. At the same time… Kadyrov is far from dead,” T. Lokshina was quoted as saying in The Moscow Times.
“I think the important thing now is that Kadyrov’s position in Chechnya is very strong. And we are not talking about Kadyrov alone as a one-man dictator… If he dies or if his health deteriorates and he can no longer carry out his duties, there are many people behind him who will continue the same activities,” said T. Lokšina.
“The abuses that we have been documenting in Chechnya for years, the abuses that are carried out with complete impunity, the absolute lack of freedom that modern Chechnya is famous for, will not disappear if Mr. Kadyrov is gone,” she explained.
Abubakar Jangulbayev, Chechen human rights lawyer and activist
“Chechen activists, opposition figures and dissidents have been discussing Apti Alaudinov’s behavior, (Chechen Parliament Speaker) Magomed Daudov’s ambitions, as well as Kadyrov’s children… and his health for at least the last year,” Jangulbayev said. “So nothing in this study surprised me.”
Jangulbayev said he believes Alaudinov, who has been singled out in the investigation, is just one of several potential successors to Kadyrov who, if elected, would merely occupy the warm seat until Kadyrov’s eldest son, now 18, is the right time to succeed him.
A. Alaudinov’s role would be similar to that of the second president of Chechnya, Alu Alkhanov, who replaced Ramzan Kadyrov after he was overthrown in 2004. his father Akhmad Kadyrov was killed, according to Jangulbayev.
“Alaudinov will be the same. He can only protect the place temporarily, because in the eyes of the Chechen people, and especially Kadyrovians, who are trained as service dogs, he has no authority,” said A. Jangulbayev.
“Intuitively, I don’t really expect any changes now,” said A. Jangulbayev, when asked if the sudden death of R. Kadyrov could plunge Chechnya into turmoil. “However, such things usually happen unpredictably and unexpectedly.”
Harold Chambers, North Caucasus Nationalism, Conflict and Security Analyst
“I found the assessment of Alaudinov’s viability unconvincing because it was disconnected from his own history, the internal dynamics of the Kadyrov regime, the internal politics of the Kadyrov regime and the regime’s relationship with Moscow,” Chambers said of Novaya Gazeta Europe’s investigation. – They considered Chechnya to be another federal entity, not a personal feudality of the Kadyrov family with the correspondingly created internal formal and informal structures.
Mr. Chambers said he believes that chaos is not likely to erupt in Chechnya unless there is a regime change in the Kremlin before Mr. Kadyrov leaves power.
“I expect a projection of stability regardless of how the succession issue is resolved.” “But beneath the facade of propaganda, there will undoubtedly be disagreements over the sharing of responsibility and power, unless one of Kadyrov’s sons is ready to take over the role of governor,” he was quoted as saying by The Moscow Times.
“Nonetheless, Kadyrov’s death would certainly create the potential for a resumption of a larger-scale conflict, meaning militant activity would likely increase.” I say ‘possible’ because there is a possibility that the chain of command will remain unbroken – I suspect that this issue has already begun to be resolved and has likely been resolved for some time.”
Ivan U. Klyszcz, Russian policy researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security in Tallinn, Estonia
“I have mixed opinions about this story,” IU Klyszcz told The Moscow Times.
“On the one hand, this story brings together a lot of things that we’ve noticed before and that they’ve noticed [kita] media and analysts. I trust Novaya Gazeta… but this is also the type of story that can be manipulated for disinformation purposes. They have promised that there will be more reports, so I will withhold my opinion until new evidence comes forward.”
IU Klyszcz said that he is not “convinced” that Achmat’s Alaudinov could be a potential successor to Kadyrov.
“Based on the way Mr. Kadyrov took his post in general – that it was a kind of dynastic succession – I firmly believe that the successor would be, if not Mr. Kadyrov’s child, then at least someone incredibly close to him,” IU Klyszcz said.
“Such precedents are very important. They shape the characters’ view of how succession might be carried out. Of course, this does not rule out the possibility that there may be other paths and other results,” explained IU Klyszcz.
