“It is likely that the new Russian offensive will coincide with July 9-11. At the NATO seventy-fifth annual summit in Washington. Following official Russian propaganda that this war is not only against Ukraine but also against NATO, and that it is a civilizational struggle against the “collective West”, Putin may take the opportunity to launch a major offensive at the Washington summit to humiliate the Alliance. just as it celebrates three-quarters of a century of curbing Moscow’s imperial ambitions,” Atlantic Council analyst Andrew A. Michta writes.
The commentary emphasizes that, instead of endlessly speculating about one or another territorial agreement, Ukraine and NATO must urgently create a common vision of victory around which Kyiv and its supporters can rally. In addition, the United States, its allies, and partners need a strategy with adequate resources to help Ukraine achieve this victory.
“If the Russians were to advance in Ukraine, the Joe Biden administration would have two choices: either stick with the current plan and increase the risk of Ukrainian casualties, or move from a ‘whatever it takes’ policy to a ‘whatever the Ukrainians need to defeat the Russians’ approach.” This would potentially increase the risk of escalation with Russia, but would also avoid the electoral risk of being blamed for the failure of US policy in Ukraine, and would give Kyiv a fighting chance to reach a favorable position from which to negotiate,” the analyst observed.
This summer is likely to be a defining moment in US policy toward Ukraine. Depending on what happens in the next few months, the conflict could move into uncharted territory, the Atlantic Council concluded.
Tags: Analyst Russia launch major attack NATO important time Putin humiliate Alliance
