“For the previous months of this year, the forecasts were at least partially fulfilled. Well, this time, let’s take a look at the long-term forecasts for May.
According to the latest ECMWF model calculations, May (climate standard norm: SKN: +12.5 °C and 53 mm) is forecast to be close to normal, with monthly precipitation about 20-30% below normal.
Another (CFSv2) model of long-term forecasts provides similar calculation results. In May, it is calculated that it should be about 0.5-1 degrees warmer, and the amount of precipitation – up to 15-30% less than the norm.
Overall, the fifth month of this year should be slightly drier than the multi-year average, with near-normal temperatures.
Looking back over the past few years, 2018 May was very warm and dry in 2019 and 2023. close to the norm, and in 2020-2022 there was a cold and wet May”, – write LHMT specialists.
Forecasters note that when there are experimental forecasts, their reliability is not very high. Important decisions should not be made based on them. The long-term forecast does not mean that very warm and/or humid days will not occur at all.
Tags: Longterm forecast forecasters reveal weather awaits Respublika .lt
