According to experts, operations against the military airport of Engels strategic bombers are likely.
Otherwise, it could have serious consequences for Ukraine’s infrastructure and operations.
The energy infrastructure suffers greatly from Russian strikes, and the impunity of ballistic missile strikes from Crimea prevents the Ukrainians from preparing for a larger-scale amphibious operation on the left bank of the Dnipro (if such plans exist).
The President of Ukraine V. Zelenskiy stated that a larger-scale offensive operation by the aggressor can be expected in May-June.
For now, it appears that the potential lines of attack may tend to remain unchanged:
- Kupjansk – Borova;
- Lyman – Slovyiansk – Kramatorsk;
- Pokrovsk – Kurakhove.
It will be possible to return to this issue at the end of April, when the disposition of Ukrainian and Russian forces, the situation of reserves and resources, and the dynamics of battles will be clearer.
However, it can be said that the occupiers in March tried to create more favorable conditions for themselves for future operations in these directions.
At Kupjansk, the Russians have by far the best situation from all possible directions of attack. On the northern flank of Kupjansko, the contact line has been leveled, only about 8 km to the goal of the operation (Kupjansko).
That is, it is effectively covered by artillery. In the background, there are direct and relatively short logistic lines with Russia. Probably, at the moment, we are waiting for the land to dry up, the water barriers to dry up, and the forests to become green. As a result, the aggressor now conducts reconnaissance, local attacks (battle reconnaissance) and saves resources for future operations.
The intensified attempts of the Russians to reach the Zherebetz and Severskyi Donets rivers (Kremina sector), to improve their tactical situation towards Syversk (Lysychansk sector) and to enter Chasiv Yar (Bakhmut sector) show that the likely goal of capturing Sloviansk in the summer campaign may be a priority for the Russians. These actions would thus enable the movement towards Lyman and Borova.
Russians are preparing for summer
The ongoing operations of the aggressor in the Avdijivka – Vuhledar sector and the intensified actions in the Velyka Novosylka sector show that the Russians are trying to take advantage and achieve maximum results (create the best possible conditions) before the likely summer offensive towards Pokrovsk – Kurahov.
It is unlikely that the aggressor will be able to develop operations of the same intensity in all directions, so it is worth watching the redeployment of forces and the dynamics of battles in the course of the next month or two, so that it becomes clear in which directions the aggressor will concentrate units.
The total losses of the aggressor decreased somewhat during the month. However, this was primarily due to very high results in the first week, which made it difficult to maintain such high dynamics of losses in subsequent weeks. Thus, it can be noted that:
The inversely proportional loss dynamics of the aggressor’s manpower and armored vehicles last week may indicate that the Russians tried to compensate for the large manpower losses experienced in the middle of the week with more intense tank attacks.
Basically, the identical dynamics of losses of Russian artillery, logistic transport and air defense systems indicate a relatively stable ability of the Ukrainian forces to attack the rear of the aggressor (exception – March 29).
Significantly increased losses of Russian air defense systems indicate that Ukrainian forces are intensifying reconnaissance and have the ability to concentrate fire on newly appeared targets, at the same time, without reducing the overall dynamics of strikes in the Russian rear.
It is likely that the artillery ammunition and drones currently available to the Ukrainian forces are capable of successfully attacking the rear of the aggressor.
The situation at the front. Battle dynamics
Ukrainian forces continued to strike the aggressor’s oil refining infrastructure. In the last two weeks, the intensity of the attacks has decreased. One of the reasons is that there are few unattacked objects in the western part of Russia, judging by the operating distances of the drones in the Ukrainian forces.
However, the Ukrainian forces achieved an intermediate effect – fuel production in Russia fell by 10-12 percent, which will slow down the export of oil products for a while.
The aggressor continued the intense attacks against the military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine, renewed two weeks ago. Last week, the activity of attacks, although slightly, decreased.
This is reflected in the aggressor’s loss graphs. Missiles (80 and 56) and drones (238 and 221) have lower losses.
The Ukrainians manage to shoot down the most modern missiles “Zirkon” or cruise missiles “Iskander”. However, this is more of an exception to the rule.
Although most of the targets are shot down by the defenders of Ukraine, but occupied by less dangerous targets (drones, “Kh101”), the Ukrainians no longer have the capacity to systematically shoot down modern and very dangerous missiles (Kinzhal, Iskander ballistic missiles). As a result, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure suffered significantly, especially the difficult situation in the Kharkiv region.
Other dynamics of aggressor losses
Russian manpower losses decreased a little more (6010 and 5420). Judging by the weekly dynamics, the biggest losses were in the middle of the week, and then returned to the average results fixed at the beginning of the week. Looking at the dynamics of the month, Russian manpower losses from very high results at the beginning of the month have reached average.
The losses of the aggressor’s armored vehicles remained similar (247 and 236). Losses were at their lowest in the middle of the week, before returning to the average levels of the beginning of the week. It should be noted that on March 29 the occupiers lost not only the most armored vehicles during the whole week, but also lost more tanks than PKM (29 and 20).
This is a relatively rare occurrence, indicating either 1) an intense attempt by the attackers to break through the defenses, and/or 2) successful work by the defenders in attacking enemy tanks in concentration areas. The losses of the aggressor’s armored vehicles decreased somewhat during the month, but remained quite high.
Russian artillery losses also decreased (225 and 200). Indirect fire system losses remained stable and average until the second half of the week, and after March 29. of the lowlands has increased significantly. Looking at the dynamics of the month, it was almost analogous to the loss of Russian armored vehicles.
The losses of the occupiers’ air defense systems increased significantly (3 and 20). They were consistently high all week, and reached unprecedented highs on Thursday and Saturday. last week, the aggressor’s losses in this county were the highest in a month.
In the area of logistic transport, the losses of the aggressor remained high (334 and 310).
Calculations of the dynamics of Russian losses are based on the data of the General Staff of Ukraine.
Geopolitical context
While the U.S. Senate has found ways to compromise with the House over the past couple of weeks, the whole thing is on hold again for at least a couple of weeks as the House is on recess for two weeks.
However, during Jake Sullivan’s visit to Kyiv, the US delegation said it was confident of the approval of the US aid package and that “Plan B is unnecessary”, even if the aid package had to be provided as a loan, as demanded by the Republicans.
The initiative of Czech President P. Pavel regarding the provision of artillery ammunition to Ukraine has reached the finish line. Now the total amount of ammunition transferred to the Ukrainians will reach about 1.5 million. It is understood that most of it is ammunition purchased from the warehouses of other countries. However, the EU bureaucratic system, which promised Ukraine a million ammunitions a year ago, has something to think about.
