Dr. Virginijus Radziukynas: around 2030, Lithuania will not only buy, but also export electricity

The energy sector is undergoing major changes with the transition to renewable energy sources and the European Union’s Green Deal plans. According to experts, this transformation not only opens up new opportunities, such as energy independence, but also creates a number of challenges.

The report on this topic will be read by the head of the Intelligent Grids and Renewable Energy Laboratory of the Lithuanian Energy Institute at the LITEXPO international specialized exhibition of technologies, innovations and engineering solutions “BaltTechnika 2024”, at the conference “Future Energy in the Baltic States”, Dr. Virginijus Radziukynas. He is convinced that one of the main challenges is how to smoothly integrate the new, renewable energy production systems into the existing power grid structures, which were designed and built on other principles in the past.

How to manage a lot of green energy?

The scientist emphasizes that “in the near future, large quantities of renewable energy resources producing electricity will be integrated into the electricity system, which has never been seen before. As a result, new challenges arise: how will it be necessary to manage such a newly structured electricity system, how to ensure the necessary reliability and stability of the system and how to do it efficiently.”

“In order to achieve this goal, traditional, currently existing technologies will have to be used, combining them in a complex manner with new technologies and solutions,” asserts V. Radziukynas.

According to him, first of all it will be digitalization: data collection, processing, new control algorithms. New technologies will also allow for more effective monitoring of electricity transmission lines and more prompt response to changed external conditions. In addition, the development of electricity storage systems will have to take place, batteries and electrolysis devices producing hydrogen will play an increasingly important role in the market.

“All this will allow us to be more flexible and help to balance the system,” emphasizes the researcher of the Lithuanian Energy Institute.

According to him, new technologies also bring economic benefits: for example, electrolysis plants will not only help to balance the electrical energy system, but will also create the main product – “green” hydrogen, which can be sold to generate additional income and which is important for industry, the future and transport. and natural gas network companies.

There is no shortage of innovative solutions and technologies in electricity storage systems, electricity distribution and transmission networks, and voltage, frequency and power control algorithms.

“At the moment, there is very intensive work on technical solutions in which artificial intelligence is used for the forecast of electricity generation from renewable energy sources. New solutions are also emerging in computational methodologies and other areas. Some of them are still in the early stages, some have already completed pilot projects, and some are already in mass deployment. All existing and future innovations will increase the reliability and stability of the electricity system, optimize operation, reduce the payback time of the systems and generally increase their attractiveness – both for consumers and electricity networks,” V. Radziukynas is convinced.

Is the legal base of Lithuania ready for the future?

According to the representative of the Lithuanian Energy Institute, not only consumers and producers, but also laws will have to adapt to the rapidly changing reality.

“Currently, the regulations of the European Commission have entered into force for both generators and electricity networks. We also apply them in Lithuania, some technical parameters have already been updated or supplemented. These or accompanying documents will be continually updated as technology evolves. There is an increasing flexibility of the technical systems themselves, their ability to adapt to the working modes of the network, it is predicted that in the future the situation will be greatly changed by artificial intelligence. Therefore, changes are happening constantly and the legal framework will have to change together”, – emphasizes the energy expert.

He also points out the importance of scientific research: “We know very well how the old power system works. But how will the new one, with its many newly integrated renewable energy sources potentially several times the grid load, perform? Challenges regarding network stability, mode control, and integration of technical solutions can await here. It is very important not to overlook something, so as not to cause problems – this is what requires detailed scientific research,” the expert asserts.

V. Radziukynas is convinced that there will be no shortage of activities for scientists: “the main attention will probably be given to network companies, the development of new technologies, but it is important not to forget the developers as well. Let’s say if a developer implements several new technologies, they must pay off. And choosing an efficient and cost-effective combination of these technologies, an effective package, may not be so easy,” the expert points out.

We have to prepare to become exporters

Rapid changes in the electricity system are inevitably moving Lithuania towards Europe. Still being a part of the common system with Russia and Belarus (the so-called BRELL ring), we cannot feel safe – the electricity frequency of this system is centrally regulated in the dispatch center in Moscow, and in the future the BRELL system can be used for economic and political pressure on Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

“The aim is to disconnect from BRELL as soon as possible and start working in continental Europe. The state has defined the goal that we should not only be self-sufficient in electricity, but also be able to export it. To achieve this, various forms of support have already been applied to both small producers and domestic consumers, and in the future, I believe, the promotion will continue. Only, probably, there will be a transition from the current technology support to another format – low-interest loans for industrial and other business companies”, predicts the head of the LEI smart grids and renewable energy laboratory.

According to the expert, in the next few years more and more cases will be recorded when Lithuania, having connected to the networks of continental Europe, will become not an importer of electricity, but also an exporter at certain times.

“I think that around the 2030s, it will be a frequent event when Lithuania exports electricity to other systems. Especially considering the fact that it is planned to build an additional line from Lithuania to Poland, which will increase both throughput in general and opportunities to export electricity”, V. Radziukynas shares his future forecasts.

It will be possible to hear more of his and other experts’ forecasts and insights about future energy, solar energy technological innovations, innovative building management technologies and sustainability principles in the industry at the conference “Future Energy in the Baltic States” organized by the National Electrical Engineering Business Association NETA.

The conference, in turn, will be part of the annual international specialized exhibition of technologies, innovations and engineering solutions “BaltTechnika 2024”, which will be held on May 15-17 at the LITEXPO exhibition and congress center in Vilnius.

Visitors to the exhibition will also be treated to the conference “Making Industry 4.0 Real” organized by the Lithuanian Engineering and Technology Industry Association LINPRA, which will discuss the topics of the fourth industrial revolution; The Baltic Auto Parts Cluster (BACC) and the national foreign investment development agency “Invest in Lithuania” are presenting the first international car forum in Lithuania; and a special part of the exhibition – “Island of Innovations” – where visitors will be among the first to see and try innovations, technologies, the latest products and other solutions that appeared in Lithuania.