Global gasoline demand growth in 2024 may be halved, which will reduce the profitability of oil refineries in the second half of the year. According to analysts, this is due to the shift to electric cars in China and the US and the return to normal consumption after last year’s crisis – the recovery from COVID-19.
How and why is global demand for gasoline declining?
According to experts, from 2020 demand will grow the least – this year it should increase by 340,000 barrels per day and reach 26.5 million. barrels per day. Last year, the increase was 700,000 barrels per day as China approaches a peak in demand for transport fuel, which the US has already passed.
“Demand in China will only grow by 10,000 bpd this year due to higher demand for electric vehicles,” said Wood Mackenzie analyst Sushant Gupta.
The International Energy Agency expects China, once the world’s biggest consumer of gasoline, to account for the majority of all electric car sales this year. At the same time, according to the research department of the China National Petroleum Corporation, gasoline consumption of the world’s largest crude oil importer will increase by about 1.3 percent this year. up to 165.1 million metric tons.
According to analysts, the share of electric cars sold in China this year may reach 45%, in Europe – about 25%, and in the United States – more than 11%. By comparison, a boom in car sales, combined with rapid economic growth and low penetration of electric vehicles, is fueling demand for gasoline in India and Indonesia.
According to the government’s estimates, by 2025 March. petrol consumption in India will reach a new record – 39.2 million tons per year, which is about 5% more than in 2024. March. and will amount to 37.2 million tons per year.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, US gasoline consumption in 2023 decreased to approximately 376 million gallons per day after the 2018 reached a record 392 million the amount of gallons.
Gasoline demand growth in 2024
Analysts predict that the demand for gasoline in Europe will increase by 50 thousand this year. barrels per day, or 2.3%. Similar relatively small growth was recorded in previous years as well.
Experts note that due to stagnant demand for gasoline in Europe and increasing competition for a new oil refinery in Nigeria, the largest in Africa and Europe, which can add 280-300 thousand barrels to the global balance. barrels of gasoline per day will put pressure on European refining margins.
Gasoline margins in the US and Asia have widened 85% this year to around $29 a barrel for WTI and 29% to around $13 a barrel for Brent. Separate refinery outages in Asia and the United States boosted margins earlier this year, while European gasoline markets were supported by higher freight costs due to attacks on Red Sea shipping and Russian energy infrastructure.
