Vidmantas JanulevičiusPresident of the Confederation of Industrialists
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicates the recovery of the euro zone economy.
Although growth is recorded so far only in the service sector, the industrial indicators are ALREADY improving somewhat timidly.
First of all, the Eurozone composite PMI exceeded expectations in April. and reached 51.4. The reading was the highest in eleven months and represents the second consecutive month of expected economic growth.
The beginning of industrial recovery is noticeable both in the euro zone and in Lithuania
The Services PMI is trending upward at 52.9, while the Manufacturing PMI is still below 50.0 and April. was lower than in March, that is, in April. reached 45.6 when in March was 46.1. Let’s say it’s still a positive trend: the rate of decline in manufacturing output in the euro area is slowing down.
The number of new orders in the service sector is growing, in turn, the number of orders in the manufacturing sector is still decreasing, they have been decreasing consistently for two years.
But we observe good news in Germany, one of our most important export partners. Germany’s composite PMI rose for the first time since June last year. exceeded the 50.0 mark. The German economy is predicted to have avoided recession in the first quarter of this year. Only a marginal contraction of the economy is likely in France as well.
There is a general trend that the service sector in the euro area is recovering and growing, although the manufacturing sector is still stagnant.
And what is happening in the Lithuanian industry? Today, the State Data Agency announced that the value of industrial production in Lithuania in March was 3.2 percent. higher compared to February However, comparing it with 2023 in March, its value was only 1.5 percent higher. Not much, but still bigger.
The value of industrial production in the first quarter of this year was only 0.1 percent. higher than in the same period last year (in comparative prices, after removing the influence of the number of working days).
It cannot be said that the industry is already recovering. But I think we can already say that we are observing the beginning of industrial recovery both in the Eurozone and in Lithuania.
I really want to hope that the industry’s recovery is not caught up in late spring frosts and snow, as happened to the first blooms of early spring this week. The slow but already tangible recovery of export markets will likely make the wait for positive ECB decisions somewhat easier.
However, I suggest that you don’t sit back and just watch the climate forecasts.
For fellow industrialists, you can already look for additional access to capital (I remind you once again that the long-awaited and won RRF measures will finally be launched), and for politicians – a big request, at least not to spoil the first signs of spring recovery.
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