Thomas L. Friedman: three probable scenarios for the outcome of the war in Ukraine

Thomas L. Friedman: three probable scenarios for the outcome of the war in Ukraine
Thomas L. Friedman: three probable scenarios for the outcome of the war in Ukraine

Ukraine and its allies had just forced a chaotic retreat from Russian invaders from a large swath of territory, and the presidents of China and India appeared to send Russian President Vladimir Putin a stark warning that food and energy inflation fueled by his war was costing him $2.7 billion. the population of their countries.

On top of all that, one of Russia’s most famous pop stars told her three and a half million followers on Instagram that this war is “turning our country into an outcast and ruining the lives of our citizens.”

In short, it was Putin’s worst week since he invaded Ukraine, with no smart decisions, no takeaways, no plan B.

Still, according to TLFriedman, there was a sense of uneasiness in many of his conversations with Ukraine’s allies in Europe.

He, an experienced foreign correspondent, claims to have understood long ago that sometimes knowledge is found in noise, in what is said and shouted, and sometimes in silence, in what is not said at all.

His take on what wasn’t said last week is: Sure, it’s great that Ukraine is pushing the Russians back a little, but can anyone answer the question that’s been hanging over our heads since the fighting started: Is it clear when this war will end? stable result?

We still don’t know that. Interviews with various experts revealed three possible scenarios, all with complex and unpredictable side effects.

The first would be a complete victory for Ukraine. In this case, there is a risk that V. Putin will do something crazy, because the defeat and humiliation will greatly hurt and enrage him.

The second scenario is some kind of dirty deal with Putin that secures a ceasefire and halts the war’s damage, but risks dividing Western allies and angering many Ukrainians.

The third option is a less dirty deal — returning to the lines everyone was on before Putin invaded in February. Ukraine might be able to live with that, maybe even the people of Russia could, but first they would have to remove V. Putin, because he would never suffer even a hint that his war was completely futile.

These scenarios vary greatly, and most of us will experience one or another of the effects of any one of them. You may not be interested in the war in Ukraine, but the war will certainly be interested in you, your fuel and food prices, and most importantly, your humanity, which even the “neutrals” – China and India – have understood.

Let’s examine all three possible endings in more detail.

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The article is in Lithuanian

Tags: Thomas Friedman probable scenarios outcome war Ukraine

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