The former US assistant secretary of state for political and military affairs recalled that two years ago, military analyst Seth Jones estimated that the Russian military was collapsing. But now, after a major change in the situation, he expressed a very disturbing opinion that the Ukrainian army “finds itself in an increasingly dangerous position against the Russian aggressors.” It is still too early to talk about defeat, but according to the general, S. Jones rightly observed that “without a clear US strategy and the constant assurance of Western weapons, intelligence and training, Vladimir Putin can win.”
MTKimmitt pointed out that a strategy to slow and stop Russia’s advance would require at least three elements. First, the US administration and its NATO allies should loosen restrictive rules on the use of Western-supplied equipment and allow Ukraine to use the full potential of such equipment.
AP/Scanpix/Ukraine soldier
The United Kingdom has already relaxed those rules, but restrictions imposed by others that prevent Ukraine from carrying out cross-border attacks and attacking Russia’s crown jewels, such as the Black Sea Fleet, must be lifted.
“Concerns about escalating Russian actions have allowed the West to adopt a posture of inaction and focus on deterrence. But if Israel’s response to last month’s Iranian drone and missile attack has shown anything, it’s that a strong response, not deterrence, is the best way to counter totalitarian threats,” writes a former adviser to the secretary of state.
According to him, autocrats consider restraint and caution as signs of weakness, their only strength is determination.
The general points out that the time has come to take more risks with US and Western military stockpiles: “While their additions allow US President Joe Biden to take advantage of existing stockpiles of weapons and ammunition, a vast amount of ready-made and lethal equipment remains locked away for other contingencies around the world, training and testing.” “
We now know that the military production base of the US and its allies in Europe is too small to sustain even a medium-sized conventional war like the one in Ukraine. A second war would be disastrous.
Such a build-up of resources, according to MTKimmitt, is completely understandable as commanders around the world want to make sure they are, as General Paul La Cameras, the US commander in South Korea, always reminds their troops, “ready to fight tonight”.
But failure in Ukraine could actually start that war. Opponents such as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un point to US indecision in supporting friends and allies, as does China, which looks across the Taiwan Strait.
“Winning wars is expensive, but not as expensive as losing them,” the general emphasized.
In his opinion, the war in Ukraine revealed a major problem of war logistics: “Even if last October additional agreement would have been passed, we now know that the military production base of the US and its allies in Europe is too small to support even a medium-sized conventional war like the one in Ukraine. A second war would be disastrous.”
AFP/ “Scanpix” photo/Russian forces
Although the Herculean effort has doubled the production of US artillery shells to 28,000. per month, Russia fires an average of 10,000 per day. projectiles.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own program to increase military production is in full swing, stunning analysts with its rapid expansion in what is now said to be the leading sector of the Russian economy. Russian units on the front lines of Ukraine may suffer terrible losses, but not due to a lack of logistics.”
According to the general, Washington should also lead much more to inspire the West to stay in this fight, because “democracies are impatient and other world events often change the focus.”
Already, the Gaza Strip and a possible regional war in the Middle East, the upcoming US presidential election and the trial of former President Donald Trump are diverting attention from the worsening situation in Ukraine.
Congressional support was necessary, but not enough to reverse the deteriorating situation in Ukraine. It’s time to loosen the shackles on Volodymyr Zelensky and let him use the weapons and equipment we provide.
However, he believes that the West, which has been experiencing Russian propaganda and psychological warfare for many years, has no less powerful tools: “It’s time to make full use of them.”
In Ukraine, the current war of attrition favors V. Putin’s strategy, noted MTKimmitt and reminded the words of the writer Leo Tolstoy, which the autocratic president of Russia is likely to follow: “Time and patience are my strongest soldiers.”
A senior military officer insists that the world cannot afford to watch this maxim come true.
V. Zelensky’s X account/Volodymyr Zelensky
“Congressional support was necessary, but not enough to reverse the deteriorating situation in Ukraine.” It’s time to loosen the shackles on Volodymyr Zelensky and let him use the weapons and equipment we provide. It’s time to take a risk with our war supplies and give Zelensky what his troops need. It’s time to remind this country what V. Putin tells his country every day – that defeat in Ukraine is a threat to our own security.”
