On Monday, a day before the latest inauguration of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced plans to hold tactical nuclear weapons exercises near the Ukrainian border “in the near future.” It would be the first time such exercises have been held since 2022, when Russia fully invaded Ukraine.
The ministry said the exercises will be conducted by missile units of the Southern Military District of Air Defense, will involve air and naval forces and will aim to “increase the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces”.
That district includes not only the accepted territory of Russia, but also the 2014 annexed Crimea and four regions of Ukraine in the southeast, which were partially occupied by Russia.
Nuclear threats from Moscow, criticism in the West
Western officials have repeatedly criticized the Russian leadership for its nuclear threats. Putin has not openly threatened a nuclear strike, although he has warned the West about the possibility of nuclear war in the event of a direct confrontation.
On the other hand, Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia and deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, has repeatedly, including on Monday, openly threatened to use nuclear weapons.
D. Medvedev also linked the decision to hold tactical nuclear weapons drills to the discussions taking place in the West regarding the sending of allied ground forces to Ukraine.
Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, also linked the planned nuclear drills to statements by Western politicians regarding the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine, particularly mentioning French President Emmanuel Macron. D. Peskov spoke about “a new stage of tension escalation”.
What are tactical nuclear weapons?
Tactical nuclear weapons differ from so-called strategic nuclear weapons in that they are less powerful and have a shorter range. They can take the form of artillery, but are usually ballistic or cruise missiles. They are fired using systems that can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.
Tactical nuclear weapons include nuclear warheads for surface-to-air missile systems with a range of up to 500 km and sea-to-air missile systems with a range of up to 600 km.
However, there are no clear classification boundaries. Some sources include Russia’s new Kalibr cruise missiles and the Kinzhal hypersonic missile with a range of up to several thousand kilometers as tactical nuclear weapons.
Ukraine bombing ‘makes no sense’
Experts interviewed by the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle agree that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is highly improbable and would be pointless. “From a military point of view, using a Russian nuclear weapon in Ukraine makes absolutely no sense under any circumstances,” said Pavel Podvig of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Studies. He added that nothing has changed in this respect.
According to the expert, Russia will not be able to practically carry out attacks during the exercise, but only the procedure for using weapons. “This is because non-strategic warheads are usually kept separate from the missiles and aircraft that can launch them,” Podvig said.
Nikolay Sokov of the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation believes that Ukraine has never had any plans to use nuclear weapons – even in 2022. in autumn, when the Russian army withdrew from the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
Some US media reported that it might have been discussed in Russia, N. Sokov said. But now the Russian military has a clear lead over the Ukrainian armed forces in many respects and is taking more and more territory in eastern Ukraine, the expert said. Kiev even expects Russian offensives to expand, he added.
Nuclear exercises – a warning to the West
Nuclear escalation has been one of the biggest fears of the West since the beginning of the Russian invasion. Western politicians and experts say that this is precisely why weapons are delivered to Ukraine slowly and measuredly.
Mathieu Boulègue of the Wilson Center, a US-based think tank, said Moscow is hoping for exactly that. He does not believe that Russia’s planned nuclear exercises were caused by “the attitude of France alone”. In his opinion, they are part of the Kremlin’s “constant intimidation and clanking of weapons.” He said that this was aimed at breaking the West’s resolve to support Ukraine.
In addition, V. Putin wants to appear as a “strong leader”, especially in the run-up to May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, said M. Boulègue.
Most experts see this as a warning to the West. “There is nothing good in this political signal, but we should try to accept it as soberly as possible,” P. Podvig summarized.
Prepared by Deutsche Welle inf.
