Russia continues its counterattack, despite losses at the front. Ukraine now faces several possible options for what lies ahead: from a new wave of Russian offensives in the second half of the summer to a surprise strike in the now inactive direction, thus aiming to further destabilize the situation on the front.
Three options for the further course of the war
Currently, the Russian occupation forces are taking advantage of Ukraine’s temporary weakening due to disruptions in the supply of military aid since the second half of last year and have stepped up their offensive. The US has already approved a large-scale new supply of aid, but it will take time to prepare and successfully deploy it on the front lines.
War in Ukraine
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Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
One of the possible options for the further course of the war envisages providing Ukrainian forces with Western weapons and temporarily stopping the Russians within the current borders. Then a new phase of the Russian offensive would begin when Russia completes the formation of new military units. The Ukrainian army believes that the realistic time for this would be August-September 2024.
The second option: Russian forces will not stop the offensive, despite the changes in the defense capabilities of Ukraine, and will continue the pressure by throwing newly formed units to the front. Then the peak of offensive actions would be reached in the second half of summer or the beginning of September.
The third option envisages the possibility of Russia striking one of the currently “inactive” directions, which could happen as early as the end of May or during the summer. In parallel, Russia can continue its offensive in the directions where Ukrainian defense lines are currently breached.
Experts of the US Institute of Military Research also note Russia’s intentions to launch a new massive offensive in the direction of Kharkiv. They believe that the Russians will not have enough forces to capture the million-strong city, but an attack on Kharkiv would force the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from other critical points on the front.
