Defense expert Aurimas Navys: Victory is first in our minds

“Victors first win, then go to battle. And the vanquished go to battle and seek to win,” she said 2.5 thousand ago. The idea conveyed in the work “The Art of War” by the Chinese teacher Sun Tzu is relevant to this day. “What does it mean?” – A. Navys addressed the audience, assuring them that the purpose of the meeting is not a lecture, but an incentive for everyone to think, share and discuss. – The essence of this thought: if victory is on your mind, then you can go to battle. If victory is not in mind, it will be difficult to win.”

After raising the question since when did Russia become our enemy, A. Navys answered after several options of answers that since the time of Vytautas the Great, when he married his only daughter Sofia to Duke Vasiliy Dimitrov of Moscow and allowed the Duchy of Moscow to flourish. No matter how disappointing it is, a lot of Lithuanian blood flowed to Russia, even the most cruel tsar in Russian history, Ivan Rūstusis, had Lithuanian blood. Therefore, Lithuania has been very important to Russia for a long time.

On the map with the borders of the states, A. Navys pointed out that Lithuania is the geographical center of Europe, but now it has acquired a very important geopolitical significance. Belarus is a puppet of Russia, and in order to connect Kaliningrad with Russia, the most direct way is through Lithuania, not Poland. “Basically, there is no such territorial unit as the Suwalki Corridor, this term is an invented narrative, it exists only in minds. Lithuania is the most direct way to reach Kaliningrad, where the strategic nuclear weapon is deployed. That is why Lithuania is so important to Russia today,” emphasized the military expert.

Citing the thoughts of the Prussian war theorist Karl von Clausewitz, who lived 180 years ago, A. Navys emphasized the necessary conditions for war. First, in order for one country to attack another, one must have the necessary military capabilities. A. Navys reassured that Russia does not have the power to attack Lithuania now, because 90% of its forces are currently directed at Ukraine. of the Russian Air Force and 85 percent ground troops. In today’s conditions, Russia’s war cannot be conventional: if, say, 1.5 thousand were withdrawn from Ukraine. tanks or several divisions – you can’t hide them in the bushes or behind cover.

Secondly, Lithuania is the country of the most powerful military alliance – NATO – and the most powerful economic bloc – the EU. Article 5 of NATO binding mutual defense would come into force immediately. And there is one more prerequisite: Russia must want to attack, and Lithuania must want to lose. For this, an emotional background must be created, what Russia does every day, every hour through various channels, various means of information and methods. And this is very dangerous.

As Russia creates informational “fakes” (fakes) in every possible way, we must be extremely vigilant: read carefully, select knowledge and think. Various provocations, attacks, attacks on strategic objects are possible in Lithuania. “Let’s say there are over 250 traffic lights in Vilnius alone, the Russians carry out a diversion and turn them all off at the same time. At the same time, with the help of artificial intelligence, they add a “fake” that our President announces that Russia has allegedly declared war on us. Can you imagine what kind of panic would arise, the economy of the country would be damaged? In this way, Russia would achieve its goal. How to avoid it? Thought activity: How can a mouse put a bell on a cat? After all, the mouse has to behave in such a way that the cat puts it on itself”, the interviewer used an impressive aphorism.

“You must have heard the myths created by the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) that Putin is sick, Putin is dead, Putin has second-in-commands. Those fairy tales are created for the West: if Putin will die soon, then why support Ukraine. The FSB is trying to instill the idea that Putin rules all of Russia. There is no country in the world where one person rules the country, not even North Korea. The security apparatus is in charge, and in Russia it consists of about 7 million people. agents, Putin is only the connecting link. You think that Putin is afraid of Prigozhin himself and his 2 thousand. dare? He was afraid that the phones in the Kremlin were silent and that his friends might replace him with Prigozhin.”

Another FSB myth is that Russia will open a second front and it will not be Moldova, but Finland. The West was threatened not to give weapons to Ukraine, as they might need them themselves.

Now Russia is engaged in nuclear blackmail to intimidate the West. “It is scary. And it would be abnormal if it weren’t scary. The West is afraid because we are citizens of democratic countries, our thinking is completely different – it is the thinking of free people. A person oppressed by the regime will never be free, his thinking has been shaped by the propaganda carried out since the time of Lenin. Therefore, Westerners believe that there is no need to escalate the problem. But the probability of using a nuclear weapon is no more than the probability of being struck by lightning today. The commanders of the Russian nuclear forces, who have this weapon in their hands, are intelligent and educated people. They can come to the Kremlin and say – stop those circuses, – said A. Navys, assuring that basically 99 percent cases of nuclear weapon use end in the same response. “However, once the genie is out of the bottle, the process may be unstoppable.” And that is the worst.”

According to the expert, the West is also delaying the possibility of giving Ukraine 300 billion. dollars from the frozen accounts of Russian oligarchs. Their children live, study, use Russian wealth precisely in the West, and they hope to get that money back. As a result, they oppose the use of nuclear weapons, and their word carries a lot of weight.

The new Kremlin war has been going on for the twelfth year, according to the 2012 the doctrine they created, which they carry out literally: this doctrine states that war, not peace, is the NORMAL state of the country. War is not declared at all. It takes place simultaneously in air, land, sea and information space. Opinion is formed and geopolitical circumstances are created.

“They were guided by this doctrine when they attacked Ukraine. When peace and economic prosperity are the normal state for the West, the Russians have a coded need for war. And how absurd was the thinking of the Westerners that it was necessary to negotiate with Putin. In order to be able to negotiate, you need to have something. This doctrine states that the war must be asymmetrical: they understand that they cannot go to war directly with the West. They claim that people must be included in the war according to the formula 1×4 – that is: 1 military and 4 civilians, or ordinary people affected by disinformation”, A. Navys explained the principles of the war conducted by Russia. In his opinion, Russia will lose this war and return to the level of 1991.

However, if there is a threat of war in Lithuania, there are 3 options for citizens: run, hide, fight. “Running is the path that the Kremlin expects from you. Backing out is another thing, but once you’ve made that decision, you should do it now. I don’t recommend it, but if that’s your choice, once the war starts, it might be too late. Fighting with a weapon requires special military training, which can only be acquired through service. The main rule in war is to survive. Most of the citizens have to help the resistance by giving the military all kinds of help, in other words, helping to bring ammunition. Command posts will be created for those who want to participate in unarmed resistance,” A. Navys asserted.

According to him, there is another option – to hide. “I have been in occupied territories, where I had to hide for several days. The best place is the basements, especially of Soviet-era schools and kindergartens, because they were built with protection against aerial bombs. Unfortunately, we do not have special hiding places, and shelters are not the same as hiding places. “Believe me, they don’t specifically fire rockets at civilians, because it’s too expensive, except in isolated cases, like, for example, in Mariupol,” said a military expert.