Ukraine withstood the attack thanks to Western anti-aircraft defense systems and energy-saving measures adopted by its citizens: families cooked on camping stoves and doctors operated by flashlight.
Changed tactics
“Their tactics have changed, but unfortunately not for the better,” Ukraine’s Deputy Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchyuk told CNN.
During the first two years of the war, Russian attacks were more scattered, firing volleys of missiles at large areas of Ukraine’s energy system. Now the strikes are becoming more precise and concentrated, with dozens of missiles and drones flying towards a single target.
“In such a short time, in a few days, in a few attacks, almost all of our year-long efforts to restore and repair were destroyed,” said S. Hrynčiuk.
A turning point occurred at the end of March, said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Kyiv-based Energy Industry Research Center (EIRC). Russia carried out one of the largest missile and drone attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, targeting at least 10 regions of the country. As a result, more than 1 million households were briefly left without electricity.
“On March 22, Russia started implementing its new attack strategy,” said O. Kharchenko. “The new strategy consists of mass missile attacks against specific targets, where large numbers of missiles and drones are simultaneously directed at a very limited number of targets.”
War in Ukraine
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Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
War in Ukraine (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
Ukrainian soldiers (photo by SCANPIX)
War in Ukraine (photo by SCANPIX)
Massive attacks on infrastructure
Recently, Russia shelled Ukrainian power plants across the country and completely destroyed the Trypilia thermal power plant, the largest power plant in the Kyiv region. Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, also said that Russia had caused “serious damage” to two of its power plants, and that about 80 percent of its power plants had been destroyed in Russian strikes. electricity production facilities managed by it.
“Instead of continuing to focus on Ukraine’s transmission systems, since the end of March, Russia has launched massive attacks on our power generation infrastructure,” DTEK CEO Maksim Timchenko told CNN. “Unfortunately, the enemy has improved their tactics and is using high-precision weapons.” As a result, compared to 2023, its destructive effectiveness has been greatly increased.”
Given that Ukraine is stockpiling energy, the thermal power plant strikes did not cause immediate and long-term disruptions to power supply. Thermal power plants are mostly used to balance the total demand, especially during the intensive heating periods in winter when the consumption increases.
Not only the intensity and concentration of the attacks have changed, but also their timing. In the past, most of the Russian strikes were delivered before winter. Now they are being carried out during an unusually warm spring.
Waiting for spring
There are two reasons why Russia might have waited until the spring to start implementing a new strategy.
First, Russia needed time for the weapons and intelligence needed to carry out the strikes.
“It’s clear that this strategy was a long time in the making, they spent a lot of time developing it, clearly gathering intelligence and very carefully preparing for these attacks,” said O. Charchenko.
Second, Russia could have waited until Ukraine’s power plants were less protected by anti-aircraft defenses, an increasingly scarce resource after two years of war and a months-long suspension of U.S. aid by Congress.
“I assume that Ukraine protected its energy infrastructure quite well before the winter, because we expected such attacks,” said Olena Pavlenko, president of DiXi Group, a Ukrainian energy think tank.
However, after the winter, according to O. Pavlenko, some air defense equipment could be moved, for example, to the Ukrainian front line.
“It’s not a mistake, it’s just prioritization. We thought that after the winter was over, we could probably use the air defense system in other places,” she said.
Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine was the most affected, said Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko. After the Russian attacks, more than 200 thousand people were left without electricity. Because the city is so close to Russia, hypersonic missiles can reach it in seconds.
“Due to the proximity to the border, terrorists have the opportunity to use various types of weapons en masse,” H. Halushchenko said on Ukrainian television.
Repair or defense
Ukraine has demonstrated an excellent ability to repair damage to its electricity grid. Some of its high-voltage substations have been restored more than 10 times, said O. Kharchenko. Dozens have been rebuilt at least three or four times
As Maria Caturian, head of the communications department of Ukraine’s state electricity grid operator Ukrenergo, told CNN, the pace of repair work has increased.
“In peacetime, it took a month to replace a broken autotransformer with a new one. Now we do it in less than a week,” she said.
However, now Ukraine has to deal with a completely different task: to repair not only substations, but also entire power plants. Substations can be protected with sandbags, anti-drone nets and other security measures, while large power plants can only be protected by air defenses. While such restorations are possible, they may be futile.
“We can restore everything. We have a very good and motivated team, said Andrijus Hota, CEO of the company “Centrenergo”, which manages the now destroyed Trypilija power plant. “However, again, without enough missiles for air defense, such a practice may not be useful.”
Tactics can be changed
Instead, Ukraine may also consider changing tactics. Instead of rebuilding large power plants, it can change the way energy is produced.
“Instead of 20 large power plants with a large concentration of production capacity and taking a significant share of the energy balance, there should be 150-200 small power plants scattered all over the country and able to supply power to the city if one of them fails,” said Mr. Caturian.
O. Kharchenko said that Kharkiv urgently needs a similar system.
“It is now clear that a large number of gas piston engines need to be brought to Kharkiv, secretly installed and protected… There is no alternative to this. Any larger device will simply be destroyed during attacks,” said O. Kharchenko.
Although next winter is still a long way off, Ukraine’s energy grid may experience stress during the summer months when air conditioners increase consumption.
To compensate for this, S. Hrynčiuk said that Ukraine has “an additional mechanism to balance the system and maintain stable work – imports.” She said that Ukraine is approaching its European allies with a request to increase the 1.7 gigawatt import limit.
But the priority, she said, is getting anti-aircraft defenses.
“Without anti-aircraft protection, we see the tragic consequences and destruction that Russian attacks can cause. That is why we really need air defense,” said the deputy minister.
