Looking back: How accurately did the last pre-election polls predict their results? | Life

15 minutes examined what the last sociological polls conducted before the elections by major public opinion research companies – “Vilmorus”, “Baltijos researches” and “Spinter researches” – showed, during which it was explained what the voters intended to vote for, and how accurately the results of these surveys corresponded to real election results.

A total of six presidential elections were held in Lithuania during this period: 1997, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014, 2019.

We searched for the results of surveys conducted before them in the archives of the BNS news agency, as well as in old portals delfi.lt and lrytas.lt articles and in “Lietuvos ryto” and “Respublikas” newspapers, which also published the results of the polls.

In sociological surveys, when voters are asked who they would vote for in the presidential election, there are always the options “Not yet decided” and “I will not vote.”

When comparing the results of the polls with the actual results of the elections, we eliminated these variants, counting only the votes of the voters who made up their minds.

It turned out that in most cases, the votes of undecided voters did not make the difference. In almost all elections, the poll results adjusted in this way were similar to the real election results. However, there were exceptions.

Brief comparisons of the polls with the actual results of the first round are at the beginning of the text.

Below you’ll find a more detailed analysis of each year’s election polls, a comparison to the election results, and a look at what might have caused the differences when they did exist.

in 1997 elections

The last poll, counting only the votes of undecided voters: A. Paulauskas 39.5 percent, V. Adamkus 34.2 percent, V. Landsbergis 14.6 percent.

Actual result of the first round: A.Paulauskas 45.2%, V.Adamkus 27.9%, V.Landsbergis 16%.

in 2002 elections

The last survey, counting only the votes of the decided voters: V.Adamkus 38%, R.Paksas 12.9%, A.Paulauskas 9.4%.

Actual result of the first round: V.Adamkus 35.5%, R.Paksas 19.7%, A.Paulauskas 8.3%.

in 2004 elections

The last poll, counting only the votes of the decided voters: V.Adamkus 35.6%, V.Blinkevičiūtė 19.3%, P.Auštrevičius 16.6%, K.Prunskienė 11.4%.

Actual result of the first round: V.Adamkus 31.1%, K.Prunskienė 21.2%, P.Auštrevičius 19.3%, V.Blinkevičiūtė 16.4%.

in 2009 elections

The last survey, counting only the votes of undecided voters: D. Grybauskaitė 65.4 percent, A. Butkevičius 11.1 percent, K. Prunskienė 7.4 percent, V. Mazuronis 6.2 percent.

Actual result of the first round: D. Grybauskaitė 69 percent, A. Butkevičius 11.8 percent, V. Mazuronis 6.1 percent.

in 2014 elections

The last survey, counting only the votes of the decided voters: D. Grybauskaitė 46.4 percent, Z. Balčytis 13.5 percent, A. Paulauskas 10.8 percent.

Actual result of the first round: D. Grybauskaitė 45.9 percent, Z. Balčytis 13.6 percent, A. Paulauskas 12 percent.

in 2019 elections

The last poll, counting only the votes of undecided voters: I.Šimonytė 31%, G.Nausėda 29.1%, S.Skvernelis 19.6%.

Actual result of the first round: I.Šimonytė 31.3%, G.Nausėda 30.9%, S.Skvernelis 19.6%.

in 2024 elections

The last poll, counting only the votes of the decided voters: G. Nausėda 37.8 percent, I. Šimonytė 18.4 percent, I. Vēgėlė 16.5 percent.

Real result of the first round: ?

in 1997

in 1997 Valdas Adamkus triumphed in the Lithuanian presidential elections held in December, defeating Artūras Paulauskas by a minimal margin in the second round of elections. 50.37% voted for V.Adamkai. of voters, for A. Paulauskas – 49.63 percent. voters.

In the first round of elections, the situation was completely different. 45.28% voted for A.Paulauskas. of voters, 27.9 percent for V.Adamkai. Vytautas Landsbergis, the then leader of the party supported by the conservatives, came third with 15.92% of the votes. voters.

in 1997 the first round of the presidential election was held in 1997. December 21 The last public opinion poll before the elections was published in 1997. December 17 – just a few days before the elections.

It was published by the newspaper “Respublika”. The survey was conducted by “Respublika” and “Baltijos tyrimi” on December 4-12.