Paris / Ottawa. Despite high inventories, falling oil prices and a slowdown in global exports, canola futures prices are rising on exchanges. This is paradoxical, but good news for rapeseed growers.
August rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange MATIF rose to 485 EUR/t (+5.5% per month). This price is the highest since the end of February this year, when it reached one of the lowest levels (about 409 EUR/t). The price was lower than the latter only at the end of May last year – it did not even reach 400 EUR/t. At the end of August last year, rapeseed cost the same as it does now.
It is interesting that the current price of rapeseed on the stock exchange does not correlate with oil prices – usually when oil rises, the prices of rapeseed as an oilseed also fall. This time, oil was cheap, but rapeseed was expensive.
According to market observers, the news that frosts in northern Poland and Germany threatened the crops may have influenced the growth of rapeseed prices.
In addition, a smaller EU rapeseed harvest is forecast this year. Experts of the agency “Strategie Grains” left 18.1 million in the latest May report. t rape crop forecast, which is 9 percent. less than last year, when it reached 19.5 million. tons.
EU rapeseed imports in 2023-2024 season, compared to the previous season, analysts have reduced by as much as 34 percent. – up to 4.22 million t, of which 65 percent was supplied from Ukraine.
Following EU rapeseed prices, their prices on the Canadian Winnipeg exchange started to rise: July futures rose by 8%. – up to 668 Canadian dollars per ton (452 EUR/t), and November futures rose by 7.4 percent. – up to 682 Canadian dollars per ton (461 EUR/t), despite the increase in stocks and the decrease in exports.
According to experts, such a price jump will not allow Canada to increase its supply to the EU in the current season, even though a week ago Canadian rapeseed prices were 40-45 EUR/t lower, making them very attractive to European buyers.
According to Canada’s StatsCan, rapeseed stocks in the country amounted to 8.2 million tonnes in April this year. t – 17 percent more than last year at the same time (7 million tons). 2023-2024 compared to the same period of the previous season, the export of Canadian rapeseed decreased by as much as 48 percent. – from 6.04 to 4.07 million tons.
Rapeseed trade also fell in the first quarter of this year. According to the calculations of Oil World (Germany), global rapeseed exports in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same period last year, decreased by 15 percent. – up to 4.3 million t, especially from Australia – from 1.9 to 1.7 million. t, Canadian – from 2.5 to 1.5 million. t, Uruguay – from 0.3 to 0.1 million tons. Only exports from Ukraine increased: from 0.31 to 0.79 million. tons.
The total volume of rapeseed exports from Australia, Canada, Ukraine and Uruguay (their share makes up 95% of world exports) in March compared to 2023. in March, decreased by 24 percent. – up to 1.37 million tons.
The main buyers of rapeseed in the 1st quarter were the EU and China, which reduced their purchases from 1.8 to 1.7 million tonnes, respectively. t and from 1.7 to 1.1 million tons.
Source: manūkis.lt info.
