Kremlin’s tricky game: Russia targets European country’s elections, but it could backfire

Ilan Shor, a US-sanctioned fugitive oligarch, has announced the creation of a pro-Russian electoral bloc. This bloc intends to nominate its candidate on October 20. in the upcoming presidential elections of Moldova.

However, Denis Cenusa, an analyst at the Lithuania-based Center for Eastern European Studies, told Newsweek that Moscow’s open operation in Moldova could backfire on the Kremlin, as it would increase current president Maia Sandu’s chances of winning the next election, which would be “a serious defeat for Russia and its minions.”

You can turn against the Kremlin

I. Shor in 2017 was sentenced in absentia due to the scandal involving 938 million embezzlement from Moldovan banks. He now lives in Israel, where he was born. He often visits Moscow, where on April 21 chaired a meeting of Moldovan opposition politicians and announced the “Victory” political bloc.

It consists of his party “Shore”, which has joined forces with “Party of Revival”, “Party of Chance”, “Party of Alternative Rescue Forces of Moldova” and “Party of Victory”. The responsible secretary of the bloc will be the governor of the pro-Russian autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenija Gucul.

Little influence in Moldova

Most of the parties belonging to the I. Shore bloc have little influence in Moldova. But the most important of these parties is the Revival Party, which organized a protest in February calling for Sandu’s resignation. This party has only four of the 101 seats in the parliament.

It is likely that the “Victory Bloc” aims to create the impression that there is widespread support for pro-Russian politics in Moldova and I. Shor, who, despite his exile, “remains the main conduit of the Kremlin’s influence in Moldovan politics,” ISW said.

“It is likely that the Kremlin is conducting hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing Moldovan society, attacking the democratic government of Moldova and preventing Moldova from joining the EU,” the analytical center said.

Russia is playing a dangerous game

D. Cenusa said that it is wrongly believed that Russia aims to defeat the ruling elite of Moldova during the elections.

“Russia is playing a difficult game in Moldova. Assessments that Russia is supporting the Shore and other overtly pro-Russian forces to justify future plans for aggression against Moldova ignore the simple fact that any overt operation will increase incumbent President Maia Sandu’s chances of winning the presidential election in the first round, the analyst said. . “This result will be a serious defeat for Russia and its minions in Moldovan politics.”

D. Cenusa believes that Russia is likely using radical pro-Russian forces to distract from other moderate forces in Moldova that are acceptable to Russian interests in the country.

For example, while Shor advocates Moldova’s accession to the Eurasian Union, other proponents of the same cause, such as former president Igor Dodon, have said they are not against Chisinau’s integration into the EU, provided Moldova decides on its sovereignty.

“Russia’s intentions are to radicalize a certain part of Moldovan society and voters, among other things, by using the image of the current ruling elite of Gagauzian autonomy,” D. Cenusa said.