Military experts: Russians are gradually fulfilling the worst-case scenario

Ukrainian forces carried out strikes in the rear of the aggressor. Fuel plants and storage facilities in Lipeck (about 280 km from the contact line), Smolensk (about 310 km from the contact line) and Voronezh (about 220 km from the contact line) were hit.

The aggressor probably attacked targets on the territory of Ukraine with missiles. Kharkiv is being terrorized again, explosions were recorded in Odesa as well.

The occupiers’ telegrams are buzzing about the detention of their “defense” deputy minister, T. Ivanov. He is accused of bribery and embezzlement of resources.

“Z” channels relish this topic, as if to say “oh now it’s all going to be okay”.

It cannot be ruled out that this “cleansing” is a sacrifice before Putin’s inauguration and a letting off of steam in the frontline forces, who blame stupid generals and thieving bureaucrats for their failures.

Kupjansk. The Russians became more active near Berestova, but the Ukrainians defended themselves. It seems that the aggressor units in the sector have moved, but whether this is the beginning of a serious attack or just a regrouping, we will see in the near future.

Lyman. The aggressor has subsided in the Nadia – Novoyehorivka section, but continues offensive actions in the Ternai – Jampolivka – Torske section. Ukrainian defenders held their positions. Unconfirmed information also appeared that the Ukrainians managed to push the Russians in the forests of the southern flank.

Syverska. Clashes continue on the contact line, Ukrainian units continue to hold positions.

Chasiv Yar. Ukrainians establish themselves in the southern approaches of Ivanivsk, Russian counterattacks were not successful. It seems that the Ukrainian forces have no way to advance further. Attempts by the occupiers to advance in the northern approaches of Chasiv Yar (Kalinivka) and near Klishijivka also continue.

Pokrovsk – Vuhledar. Northern flank. Little by little, the Russians are fulfilling the worst-case scenario – widening the breach around Ocheretyne, pushing on Novobachmutivka and attacking towards the critical heights to the west and northeast of Ocheretyne. The Ukrainians are counter-attacking, but so far there is no way to change the bad trends.

CIT is uncharacteristically optimistic about the situation near Oceretyna. According to them, this is not a big problem because: 1) the Russians have only advanced in a narrow wedge that can be cut by counterattacks and artillery fire, 2) the US help is already arriving and the Ukrainian defenders will have someone to stabilize the situation and/or drive the Russians out of their positions.

Experts say they really want to believe it, but:

• The aggressor expands the wedge every day, at least a little bit, and establishes himself in settlements and highlands. It will be difficult to knock him out of there.

• It is enough to remember that from 2022 there were not one and not two Russian narrow wedges that the aggressor was able to maintain and later expand. For example Russians Dibrova and Yampolivka have had small and narrow wedges since 2023. beginning The Ukrainians have not been able to cut them until now, and at this moment these wedges have even widened somewhat.

• US support is coming, but it will travel in parts, and there are at least 4 hot spots on the front where ammunition, weapons are critically needed, and not necessarily Ocheretyne will be a priority (remember the situation at Časiv Jarao or Novomychailivka).

Therefore, the stabilization of the situation near Ocheretynė is not programmed. So, it won’t be easy.

Southern flank. The aggressor managed to advance slightly in Heorhijivka, but this does not fundamentally change the situation. Much more dangerous aggressor pressure in Krasnohorivka and Novomychailivka. Ukrainians are holding their positions as much as they can, but the situation is complicated.

A week or two ago, the Russians were trumpeting how they were “mercilessly exterminating” the Ukrainians on the left bank of the Dnieper, allegedly smashing their boats trying to move units and resources across the river.

Today, the mood on the telegram channels of the occupiers is sadder – they complain that they themselves lack boats, Ukrainian defenders are occupying the islands, and it is still not possible to dislodge them from the left bank.