War in Ukraine. Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive: analysts predict where and when it will take place

Analysts at the US Institute for Military Research (ISW) assume that Russia may focus a possible large-scale offensive in late spring or summer on the west of the Donetsk region, adding that Russian troops will be able to advance in only one operational direction.

The Russian leadership has announced its planned offensive operation in 2024. may focus on the western Donetsk region in the late spring or summer, hoping to take advantage of the steady but small advance of Russian forces in the sector.

Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Russian forces are massing along the Kharkiv-Luhansk route, near Bakhmut, near Avdiyivka and in the western Zaporizhia region, but ISW experts continue to assess that Russian forces are unlikely to be able to launch a coordinated, large-scale offensive operation due to their limited manpower and planning. only in one operational direction.

The report notes that on March 30, Ukrainian forces appear to have repulsed a mechanized attack by a Russian battalion near Avdijivka, the battalion’s first mechanized attack since Russian forces in 2023 at the end of October started the campaign to capture Avdijivka.

According to the report, Russian forces, including the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District [TsVO]) elements, March 30. organized a large-scale mechanized attack near Tonenko, involving 36 tanks and 12 BTP.

At the same time, as noted, during the attack, Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight BMPs, and during the attack, it was not possible to break through the Ukrainian front line.

According to analysts, Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from March 30. offensive, especially near Avdiyivka, where Ukrainian forces were forced to quickly withdraw to new defensive positions after losing populated territory, is a positive indicator of Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against future large-scale Russian attacks and the expected Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024.

At the same time, the readiness of the Russian military command to include a tank battalion in the offensive near Avdijivka shows that this offensive is a priority for the Russians.

Other important conclusions of the analysts:

• The Kremlin-controlled Moscow Patriarchate’s Russian Orthodox Church (RPC) has reportedly ordered all its clergy to change its liturgy to include provocative prayers in support of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, possibly threatening to remove RPC clergy who oppose the war.
• The RPC MP leadership has tightened internal vetting of RPC MP clerics and reportedly fired several clerics who refused to promote Kremlin-imposed prayers in support of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• On the night of March 30-31, Russia launched another series of missile and drone strikes, mostly targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, as delayed U.S. security assistance continues to weaken Ukraine’s air defense system and allow Russia to inflict significant damage on Ukraine’s energy system. .
• It seems that the Ukrainian forces on March 30 repulsed a mechanized attack by a Russian battalion near Avdiyivka, the battalion’s first mechanized attack since 2023. the campaigns of Russian forces to occupy Avdijivka, which began at the end of October.
• March 31 French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that France would provide Ukraine with an undisclosed number of Aster 30 anti-aircraft missile systems and “hundreds” of armored vehicles and other equipment.
• March 31 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the planned decree on the six-month spring military conscription in Russia, during which from April 1. until July 15 150,000 Russians will be drafted.
• According to reports, the Russian military command has appointed the Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces, Colonel General Alexander Lapin, as the commander of the newly created Leningrad Military District (LVO).
• The Kremlin continues its efforts to implement Russian federal laws in post-Soviet countries.
• March 31 Russian authorities detained terrorism suspects in the Republic of Dagestan.
• March 31 Russian troops recently confirmed an advance near Avdiyivka and southwest of Donetsk.
• The Russian government continues to withhold adequate compensation for volunteers and irregular forces fighting in Ukraine, despite recent legislation that makes it easier for these soldiers and their families to obtain veteran status.