However, US media group CNBS noted that just a few months after the start of the war, it appears that Russia, with its manpower and weapon superiority, has been able to weaken Ukraine’s defenses and advance – particularly in eastern Ukraine, where Russia’s last major victory is the town of Avdiyivka and the occupation of several other surrounding settlements.
With Russia gaining momentum of late, and ongoing concerns about the arms and ammunition shortages Ukraine is experiencing due to the suspension of US military aid, it is now being considered that a stalemate may indeed be the best scenario Kyiv can hope for this year.
In the worst-case scenario, Ukraine may face Russian forces breaching Ukrainian defensive positions on part of the front line, according to the CNBS article.
“Russia is gaining momentum in its offensive against Ukraine as Western aid stalls, so the coming months will be crucial to the direction of the conflict.” In the worst case, parts of Kyiv’s front line may be threatened with collapse,” in March. Defense and security expert Ben Barry of the Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS) said in the analysis.
He noted that Russia’s success in capturing the city of Avdiyivka and the territories gained since then “raises the question of whether in 2023 at the end of Ukraine’s assessment that the war in 2024 will end up in a dead end, could have been optimistic.”
“Moscow’s desire to take territory at high casualties, combined with increased production of artillery shells, contrasts with the West’s failure to provide Kyiv with a steady supply of artillery ammunition.” These dynamics set the stage for the latest shift in momentum in the ground campaign as Russia enters its third year of full-scale invasion,” the expert noted.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has already warned that Russia plans to launch a new offensive in the early summer, so the shortage of ammunition and weapons will become critical.
Barry estimated that Russia will likely launch several major offensives in the spring and summer “aimed at causing Ukrainian casualties, pushing the defenders westward and extending control over the occupied territories,” particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine.
According to the IISS, Russia, which has already mobilized several hundred thousand men, can maintain an offensive campaign for some time.
IMAGO/Scanpix/Russian soldiers near Avdijivka
“Moscow has managed to attract enough contract troops to maintain its force structure and should be able to replenish tank losses on the battlefield for two years or more.” In addition, Moscow has put its economy on a war footing, with total military spending now accounting for a third of its national budget at around 7.5 percent. GDP,” the analyst explained.
According to him, the supply of artillery shells, ammunition and ballistic missiles from Iran and North Korea is changing the balance of firepower to the detriment of Ukraine. Iran and North Korea deny any arms deals with Russia, despite widespread evidence of drone attack aircraft and missiles being sent from both countries.
“This means that over the coming years, Russia will probably be able to produce enough missiles and drones to sustain recent pressure on Ukraine’s air defenses, attack its defense industry, and try to undermine the morale of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers,” Barry warned.
