The terrorist threat can only increase –

The terrorist threat can only increase –
The terrorist threat can only increase –

– Russia has been at war with Ukraine for the third year. It would seem that security measures should be strengthened in the country, and here a few armed individuals calmly break into a concert hall. How could this happen?

– It is a good question, the answer to which would be easier to give if I knew how the protection of such objects or events is organized in the neighboring country. On the other hand, there is a war going on, explosions are heard every day not only at the front line, so the Russians should have understood that the Ukrainians are defending themselves and will defend themselves, and they should have taken care of strengthening the security. Or they were convinced that they were omnipotent, and the reality turned out to be different.

By the way, the Western special services warned in advance that terrorist attacks were possible, but no corresponding measures were taken – perhaps the Russians wanted to create a precedent to justify their further actions, as was the case with “Nord Ost” or Beslan. In this case, we should wait to see what happens President Vladimir Putin, who for now only threatens the organizers and executors with words, will give a real answer.

We should not underestimate the recently forgotten private military group “Wagner”. They have earned so much in Africa and Syria that they could certainly get a response.

There can be all sorts of speculations, but without reliable knowledge, I would not really want to venture into them. However, what worries me the most is that Moscow is trying to weave Kiev into this whole story. This could be expected, so Ukraine and the USA immediately said that the Ukrainians had nothing to do with it, but will the Kremlin want to hear them?

– As for the attack itself, it was initially claimed that the attackers went on a rampage for half an hour unhindered. It was later claimed that only 15 minutes, but the police did not appear during that time. War, tension and such a slow reaction?

– I will repeat, it is difficult to assess the situation when you do not have enough information, and Russia is in no hurry to provide it. On the other hand, the videos circulating on the Internet, which record how the attackers are calmly walking around and shooting at people, open the way to speculation and various versions themselves. Including the aforementioned about Moscow’s desire to justify its actions.

The war is going on, both sides are counting losses, but Russia not only does not promise to stop, but also wants to mobilize additional forces. This requires a pretext and people’s obedience, which may arise in the face of additional external aggression.

Even if it was a real terrorist attack, because such a version cannot be ruled out at all, I have no doubt that Russia will use it to achieve its goals. And will do it in the most brutal way, as shown by the arrest of the suspects. One was beaten, the ear of the other was cut off. This is a clear signal that Russia is not a state governed by the rule of law, therefore brutal treatment of its enemies is and will be tolerated. I think this signal is intended not only for the foreign audience, but also for the domestic audience, but again, more information is needed to draw concrete conclusions.

– There was a huge fire in the building. How did it happen that a structure like this, which was supposed to have fire protection systems, was so badly damaged by several containers of flammable liquid?

– This allows us to assume that the attack was seriously prepared and carried out by prepared persons. Although modern buildings have various fire protection systems, if they have access, they can be disconnected and cause a fire in the most easily vulnerable parts of the building. But how it really was, we will probably never know.

– Nothing stopped the attackers from rampaging, they left freely, but they were caught relatively quickly and although they had weapons, they did not resist. This situation does not raise questions?

– This whole attack raises questions. Maybe it was a provocation, maybe someone was hiding behind the detainees, maybe there were even more goals. Questions to which there are no answers, at least for now.

– This is not the first terrorist attack this year. The possible danger of terrorism was discussed in Germany. Is it possible to overcome terrorism?

– Completely overcome – no. But it is possible, acting together with other countries and their intelligence, to take actions that would prevent the majority of such attacks. Because the more special forces the state subjugates, the more closely the common space is monitored, the less likely an attack will be. However, it always remains, as shown by the example of the USA, which has a particularly wide intelligence and counter-intelligence network.

The fact that we are a member of NATO and the EU gives us additional opportunities, but it is still necessary to take care of the creation of a common European security theme. Especially when it comes to cyberspace, which is very difficult to control and can be used for any purpose. It is also necessary to keep in mind the protection of external borders, which should be combined with anti-terrorist programs, since migrants used as a hybrid weapon by hostile countries can also be members of terrorist groups. States must pay a lot of attention to this, but the post-war period may demand even more.

The war in Ukraine will end sooner or later, and then millions of Russians and Ukrainians who fought in it will return home. People will go home who have seen war up close, who have killed each other. There is no doubt that at least some of them will return with psychological problems, which will entail difficulties in finding a job, building relationships or communicating with others. Also, a lot of weapons and explosives will remain in the hands of former soldiers, so they can become terrorists themselves, join gangs, organize attacks or murders.

Lithuanian residents had to fight in Afghanistan, although not by their own will. When the war ended there, those who returned were looked at with caution by those around them, because they sometimes broke out. Dalia did not manage to adapt in everyday peaceful life.

Let’s also remember the war in the Balkans, after which armed and particularly brutal gangs of Albanians and Serbs began to rampage in Europe. The same is waiting here, so the states have to prepare for it now.

– Maybe the simplification of the arms trade rules would change something in today’s situation? For example, the American company “Biofire” has developed “smart guns” that can be used only by authorized persons, which prevents their illegal use.

– This issue is multifaceted, but we are living in a difficult period of challenges, so it would certainly be appropriate to teach people how to handle weapons. Not only shooters, volunteers or hunters, but also all those who want to, who, as in Switzerland or Israel, would allow the formation of the so-called silent reserve. In addition, I think that the common apartment dweller would feel more at ease if he knew that a shooter or a hunter lived nearby. Especially since owning a weapon also disciplines its owner, who is forced to act more responsibly and fulfill certain obligations.

Also, it is likely that if they realize that when they enter the door uninvited, they may not leave again, otherwise potential attackers would also look at the situation.

We’re not going anywhere, because we’ve entered an era where weapons once again become an integral part of it. Each age has its own challenges and the better prepared for them, the easier they will be overcome. We just don’t need to think that someone will do our “homework” for us next time. We have to prepare ourselves.

2023-2024 terror acts

• On the first day of 2023 An explosion occurred at the checkpoint of the military airport in Kabul (Afghanistan). According to different data, from 10 to 20 people were killed, from 8 to 30 were injured.

• January 30 A suicide bomber blew himself up in a Shiite mosque in Peshawar (Khaiber-Pakhtunhwa, Pakistan). During the attack, more than 80 people were killed and 200 were injured.

• 2023 February 17 attackers attacked a police station in the center of Karachi (Pakistan). Five people were killed and 14 others were injured in the attack. It was later reported that all three attackers were killed by law enforcement officers. Although the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (Pakistani Taliban) claimed responsibility for the attack, the Islamic State was also suspected.

• The Ismaili center in Lisbon was attacked in 2023. March 28 Two people died of stab wounds in the attack. The criminal was neutralized and later detained in one of the city’s hospitals.

• June 16, 2023 Insurgents from the jihadist group Allied Democratic Forces, believed to be linked to the Islamic State, attacked a school in Mpondwe in western Uganda. During the attack, 42 ​​people were killed, including 38 schoolchildren, and several others were kidnapped.

• The explosion that took place in 2023 July 30 at an Islamist political rally in the northwestern Pakistani city of Kharo that left at least 63 dead and 200 injured.

• 2023 in October Gambet School in Arras (France) was attacked. A knife-wielding assailant killed one teacher and injured three others.

• In mid-October, shots rang out in Brussels as well – 45-year-old Abdesalem Lasuedas, originally from Tunisia and living illegally in Belgium, opened fire on Swedish football fans visiting the country. Two people were killed and one was injured in the attack.

• 2023 November 30 during the truce period, two armed Hamas attackers attacked peaceful residents waiting for transport in Jerusalem. Their attack took the lives of a 24-year-old pregnant woman and 67-year-old and 73-year-old men. A civilian who shot at terrorists, whom the soldiers believed to be a terrorist, was also killed. 16 people were injured, the terrorists were killed.

• The terrorist act in Kerman (Iran) that took place in 2024. On January 3, two explosions took place, killing 94 people. The Afghan branch of the Islamic State, Vilajat Khorasan, claimed responsibility for them.

• The terrorist attack in Sibi (Pakistan) took place in 2024. January 30 during a rally of the Pakistani organization “Movement for Justice” dedicated to the elections. During it, 4 people were killed and 5 were injured. The Afghan branch of the Islamic State again claimed responsibility.

• 2024 February 24 At least 28 people were killed in two explosions in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. The explosions took place on the eve of the elections. The Islamic State claimed responsibility.

• March 21 Vilajat Khorasan blew up workers waiting for their salaries at New Kabul Bank. 21 people were killed and the same number were injured. The pro-Taliban website Al Mirsad identified the killer as Tajik citizen Asadbek Madiyarov.

The article is in Lithuanian

Tags: terrorist threat increase Respublika .lt


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