it indicates great chaos and confusion

it indicates great chaos and confusion
it indicates great chaos and confusion

A. Medalinskas, Vice-Chairman of the Seimas, conservative Paulius Saudargas and former ambassador to the United Kingdom and the United States and former EU ambassador to Russia Vygaudas Ušackas discussed the partial mobilization announced by the Kremlin leader and the fate of Russian citizens on the “Question of the Day” program of “Zinii Radio”.

“Facebook dissidents” should not be accepted

The Vice-Chairman of the Seimas, Paulius Saudargas, is extremely skeptical of the talk that Russians fleeing mobilization should be granted an exception and accepted.

“I don’t think that now, at this stage, Lithuania should expand the range of citizens it accepts from Russia. We have to think about our reserves and resources – we are taking in Ukrainians fleeing the war, they are the real refugees from the war they didn’t ask for, didn’t support and didn’t want, and attacked them. We welcome them with open arms,” ​​P. Saudargas said.

Now, according to the parliamentarian, the Russians have hurried to flee the country, sweep their tickets to the nearest countries, and the decisions made the day before regarding the tightening of punishments for avoiding military service only made them understand even more that the Russians themselves were in danger.

“It turns out that people didn’t somehow run away from Russia before, they weren’t persecuted, there was a war for them in order, that Russia attacked Ukraine, but when the Kremlin machine turned towards them and said that maybe now you are going to be hanged, only then did the mass flight from the regime begin. Therefore, I would not consider the reception of such people as a humanitarian basis”, P. Saudargas explained.

True, he reminded that even today there is an opportunity to accept refugees from Russia for humanitarian reasons, because each arriving person is evaluated individually. However, according to the member of the Seimas, the reasons must be well-founded.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs really knows those people who work in the opposition, are dissidents or take part in real protests, are real political prisoners or may become such. A person must somehow act in public, apparently, and prove it by his actions, and not become in one day facebook a dissident”, noted P. Saudargas.

Former ambassador to the United Kingdom and the United States and former EU ambassador to Russia Vygaudas Ušackas, for his part, said that the partial mobilization announced by the Kremlin testifies that V. Putin’s plan in Ukraine is not going as he expected, and this is a response to the perception that the victory of the current forces is really necessary for Russia not enough

“Time will tell what the response and reaction of the Russians themselves will be, but it is obvious that the confusion is already there. People go to protest, as far as I’ve seen, a ticket from St. Petersburg or Moscow to Astana or Almaty costs more than 12 thousand dollars. Apparently, someone will make good money from this”, remarked V. Ušackas.

It is true, he pointed out that the number of protesting Russians is not very large so far – according to the interviewer, it should be understood that political activity in Russian society is historically and traditionally very low. It is said that the decisions taken by the institutions, which force people to either flee their country or “swallow the bitter pill” and continue to live under the regime, do not really help him to grow.

“There will be no miracles, unless there is some special case – for example, a mass return of coffins, as was the case in Afghanistan – it took almost 10 years for mothers’ committees to be formed throughout Russia, which forced a change in the Russian strategy,” V. Ušackas said.

The former ambassador agreed that Russians fleeing the mobilization should not be allowed in, but noted that not only the Baltic countries, but at least all Western countries should take such a position.

“I think that a kind of blockade initiated by Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Finland could be one of the effective measures for Russian citizens – let them (Russians, – find out who they are inside. But it will only work if all countries, at least Western countries, all apply those measures together.

If we do not reach a consensus within the European Union itself, I do not think we will with Turkey, India or the United Arab Emirates. But as complete total isolation, it could be an effective measure in the long term”, assessed V. Ušackas.

It was not V. Putin’s statement that moved me more

Political scientist Alvydas Medalinskas, a colleague of LRT currently in Ukraine, pointed out that the Ukrainians themselves were much more interested not in the news announced by V. Putin, but in the personal victory of the released defenders of Azovstal.

“I think that the release of the defenders of Azovstal clarified absolutely everything. This is the same elation as after the Kharkiv outbreak – about the same mood. Everyone’s happy, everyone’s congratulating – you can get a letter that just says “congratulations” and everyone knows what they’re talking about.

In this sense, a very interesting thing is Putin’s statement, which Western politicians also assessed as a new stage, a dangerous step – Ukraine is so used to that war and Putin’s threats, and is so determined to win that after that statement, do you talk to officers or officers, no one reacted more seriously”, said A. Medalinskas.

According to the interviewer, V. Putin’s latest steps show that the war is gradually evolving, but it is certainly not its end.

“All the talk about Putin wanting to end the war shows that it is empty talk. I will paraphrase Putin’s words that he said even before the war: he used the allegory of “Mowgli” and talked about Akela. That all kinds of “eyes” are rubbing around, flattering. And “akela” he called Joe Biden. And now Putin could look in the mirror and see the “akel” that is weakening. <...> I think that without Erdogan’s pressure, Putin would not have released the Azovstal officials.

Here we can go further and look at the situation according to the fact that Putin is already giving Armenia to Erdogan, and here is the fact. Akela is weakening, Putin is weakening, but still predatory. He continues to have no pity for people – both Ukrainians and even Russians themselves. He can mobilize them, send them as cannon fodder even without fully arming them,” the political scientist thought.

The Kremlin leader also used the phrase “I’m not bluffing” when threatening nuclear weapons. According to A. Medalinskas, such words could be evaluated in two ways, but such a statement by V. Putin also signals a certain danger.

“When a person says such things, he wants to say and try to convince himself and others that maybe he already said some similar things, it didn’t happen, then others no longer believe that it could happen, and then you say “I’m not bluffing” . But there is also a certain danger in it, which is better to discuss with psychologists and psychotherapists.

Here, a person in such a state can actually do something to prove that he is not bluffing. Even if it does not correspond to any signs of rationality, simply to prove that he is important and not bluffing”, explained A. Medalinskas.

However, he also reminded that it is not so easy to use a nuclear weapon, and V. Putin’s close entourage could also put the brakes on it.

“Regarding the nuclear weapon, we understand that there are at least three persons in this chain – the minister and the commander of the armed forces, plus technicians who can also stop the processes. In this sense, they also see the weakening of Putin, they fully understand the responsibility that can be. And here suddenly Putin appears in giant pliers.

I think that one of the reasons why Putin released the Azovstal officials is also this appearance in tongs,” said the political scientist.

Although it is believed that the head of the Kremlin was supposed to address the nation on Tuesday evening, V. Putin’s speech never took place – the partial mobilization was announced on Wednesday morning. A. Medalinskas said he had his own guess as to why this happened.

“I think that various groups in and around the Kremlin had a very heated discussion, maybe even all night. I don’t think Putin slept, I don’t think others slept. They debated furiously what to say, and I think there could have been several options, including partial mobilization, which most likely became a compromise. I think that Putin himself was probably in favor of general mobilization.

There could still be a declaration of war or no declaration, and the Kremlin propagandists were completely lost – either that there will be a speech tomorrow or “go to sleep”. But in principle, this indicates great chaos, great confusion in the Kremlin, and the reason for this is Ukraine’s strong defense, its strong political will, the breakthrough near Kharkiv and the growing economic and military aid of the West, but of course, this could not have happened,” he noted.

The article is in Lithuanian

Tags: great chaos confusion

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