Intelligence officials: shock in Berlin after Putin appeals to old allies

A detailed assessment by Western intelligence agencies obtained by Politico said Russia, which has close ties to Nicaragua’s authoritarian leaders, may have urged its allies in Managua to invoke the so-called 1984 Genocide Convention and refer Germany’s actions to the ICJ.

Nicaraguans “have no reason to get involved in a conflict in the Middle East,” one intelligence official said.

Nicaragua has long supported Palestine, but the case against Germany, with which it normally maintains friendly relations, has shocked many commentators in Berlin and beyond. The case was filed on March 1, and just a week earlier, the German Foreign Ministry described the relationship between the two countries as a “close friendship.” Russian President Vladimir Putin may have had good reasons to play with the ICC and turned to old allies in Nicaragua for help.

Nicaragua and Russia share a deep connection. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union supported the leftist Sandinista rebels who overthrew the country’s government in 1979. In recent years, Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega has increasingly adapted his authoritarian regime to Russia’s order, taking inspiration from, for example, Putin’s “foreign agents” law.

In its case against Germany, Nicaragua claims that by exporting weapons to Israel, Berlin has become complicit in the massacre of civilians in Gaza.

Last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that about 13,000 people had been killed since the counterattack against Hamas in the Gaza Strip began. Palestinian fighters. He also stated that for every terrorist killed, there are 1-1.5 civilians killed. Local health authorities run by Hamas say more than 34,000 people were killed. Palestinians.

In January, the Republic of South Africa (SAF) also appealed to the ICJ and accused Israel of committing genocide. According to the ICJ preliminary ruling, the court did not accept the claim, but warned Israel to ensure that its forces in Gaza do not commit genocide.

According to legal experts, since the ICJ did not find that genocide is being carried out in Gaza, Germany cannot be considered an accomplice. Moreover, such a case where a third country is forced to take responsibility for war crimes committed by another country is unprecedented.

It is true, even if many jurists believe that Nicaragua’s claim is unfounded, bringing the accusations of genocide to the main judicial body of the United Nations (UN) is a humiliation for Berlin. It was Germany’s crimes against humanity during the Second World War that led to the drafting of the Genocide Convention, and the Germans spent several decades trying to convince the world that they adhere to the highest standards of human rights and international law.

Mr. Putin seems to be very fond of “trolling” the Germans, and the humiliation may have been part of his plan.

Earlier this month, Nicaragua closed its embassy in Berlin. Neither the Nicaraguan mission to the UN in New York nor the embassy in Vienna, which has now also become responsible for diplomatic relations with Germany, made a comment.

The German Foreign Ministry also declined to comment.

If Russia is behind the Nicaragua case, perhaps the decision to cause trouble for Germany was based on a more important reason – to try to undermine the credibility of the ICJ in the eyes of Western countries, turning it into a place for the trial of meaningless legal disputes.

In recent years, Russia has been in trouble with the ICC. After Moscow starts the invasion in 2022 In February, Ukraine appealed to the ICJ, and the court ordered Russia to “immediately cease” the military operation pending a final decision.

Russia ignored the ruling (the court does not have the power to enforce decisions), but remains dissatisfied because the ICJ decision deprived the Putin regime of any opportunity to legally justify the war of aggression.

Ukraine’s claim was based on the fact that Russia’s stated reason for the invasion – that ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine “are oppressed and genocide is being committed against them” – was fabricated. According to Ukraine, basing the invasion on lies is also a violation of the Genocide Convention.

Russia rejected Ukraine’s arguments and said that the ICJ had no jurisdiction.

In early February, weeks before Nicaragua decided to file a lawsuit against Germany, the ICJ rejected Moscow’s objections and declared it had jurisdiction. True, the court has not yet made a final decision.

Meanwhile, Moscow will use the case of Nicaragua against Germany and the case of PAR against Israel for genocide to undermine the legitimacy of the ICC and, using its propaganda channels, will announce that Russia has fallen victim to the application of double standards, Western intelligence officials said.