War in Ukraine. Forbes: Ukrainian forces near Ocheretyn are in an unenviable position, but retreat is even more risky

The Russians are moving reinforcements to Ocheretyn, where the Ukrainian armed forces are desperately trying to prevent a retreat, as it poses too great a risk, writes Forbes.

“The situation of the exhausted Ukrainian brigades in this area is unenviable. It is safe to say that Ukrainians will lose several villages around the Ocheretyn axis,” the publication writes.

But the real danger is a situation where the Ukrainian armed forces will have no choice but to cut their losses, withdraw a few kilometers to the west and re-establish themselves in a new defensive line.

“Such a retreat could lead to the surrender of tens of square kilometers of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or accept the fact that they will have to live under brutal occupation conditions.” Worse, a retreat — if executed poorly — would give the Russians the opportunity to redouble their local attacks and achieve a second, third, or fourth breakthrough, which could trigger a chain reaction to the broader collapse of the Ukrainian front,” the article reads.

“Forbes notes that all Ukrainian brigades are trying to maintain defensive positions under constant fire, and the imbalance of firepower can be decisive in the course of the battle.”

The Russian command moved the 15th and 74th motorized rifle brigades, as well as parts of the 90th tank division and special forces to forward positions. Facing them are at least seven Ukrainian brigades and a separate battalion: the 23rd, 25th, 47th, 100th and 115th Mechanized Brigades, the 25th Airborne Brigade, the 3rd Assault Brigade and the 425th Assault Brigade battalion Brigades usually deploy one battalion at a time.

In this way, the Russian occupiers have over 10,000 troops on or near the promontory, opposed by only 3,000 Ukrainians.

Defense is easier than attack, even if the attacker has the advantage of firepower, so the Russians are not guaranteed to win the battle and force the Ukrainians to retreat, according to the publication.

“Having advanced five miles into Ukrainian territory, Russia’s westernmost troops are essentially alone and far from major supply lines. They are vulnerable. If Ukrainian forces manage to starve them out while Russian reinforcements expand the promontory and bolster logistics, the Russians may lose this battle,” Forbes writes.

Although such an optimistic outcome is possible, it seems more realistic that the Ukrainian armed forces will try to retreat westward with battles, according to Forbes.