The former commander of the US forces in Europe: the Russians in Crimea no longer have a place to hide

After the annexation of the Black Sea peninsula belonging to Ukraine in 2014, the head of the Kremlin invested many billions of dollars in the militarization of Crimea: expanding bases, building warehouses and taking care of other military infrastructure. Now a stronghold, Crimea faces a new threat that could neutralize its importance in the 26-month-old war: the United States’ long-range ATACMS, or tactical long-range missiles. After nearly two years of hesitation, Washington has finally given Kyiv powerful ballistic missiles that can reach targets as far as 300 kilometers away, meaning they can easily destroy any of the peninsula’s 100 military facilities.

“The coming of ATACMS to Ukraine is an important breakthrough. They can make Crimea absolutely nothing militarily,” Washington-based military analyst Philip Karber told RFE/RL.

Home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Crimea is home to six military air bases, command and control centers, military depots, docks, barracks and much more. The peninsula also hosts air defense radars and anti-missile systems that protect its military infrastructure.

Russia regularly launches missiles, including supersonic missiles and drones, into southern Ukraine from Crimea. Recently, the Ukrainian port of Odesa has been under active attack from the peninsula.

Crimea also plays the role of one of the most important logistics centers in V. Putin’s war. Russia transports critical resources such as ammunition, armor, fuel, food and medical equipment from the Krasnodar region to Crimea by road, rail, ferry and other ships. Most of the supplies and personnel are moving north on the peninsula to the Russian-occupied territories of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

“Right now, Crimea is like an unsinkable aircraft carrier for the Russians, from which they launch missiles and drones, and provide logistical support to Moscow’s forces in southern Ukraine,” US Army Reserve Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe, told RFE/RL.

Ukraine has hit several important military targets in the Crimean peninsula, even without ATACMS, including military air bases and the nineteen-kilometer-long Crimean bridge, the only physical link between Russia and Crimea, a critical element of the route of military assets.

Although Moscow regularly closes the bridge due to threats, abundant supplies continue to travel through it to Crimea. Ph.D. Karber clarifies that they are also transported by ferries. Ships also carry cargo to Sevastopol, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the southwestern coast of the peninsula.

For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged the administration of US President Joe Biden to send long-range ATACMS missiles carrying 230-kilogram warheads to hit targets deep in Russia, particularly in Crimea. Ukraine produces very few long-range missiles, although it hopes to increase production already this year.

Last fall, the United States provided Ukraine with shorter-range ATACMS capable of reaching a target 100 miles (165 kilometers) away, which deploys smaller bombs upon detonation. Kyiv used them very successfully for the first time in October against targets in eastern Ukraine.

As soon as it finally received longer-range ATACMS missiles in April, Ukraine already on April 17 hit the Dzhankoy military air base in northeastern Crimea with them: Russian helicopters, the S-400 strategic surface-to-air platform, the most advanced Russian air defense system and the airspace monitoring complex were damaged. , used in the command and control center. This information could not be independently verified.

The United States has not announced exactly how many long-range ATACMS systems it has already sent to Ukraine or how many more Kyiv will receive in the coming months.

Citing unnamed US officials, The New York Times announces that more than a hundred long-range ATACMS have already been dispatched to Ukraine, which is defending itself against Russian aggression. It takes more than one such missile to destroy or severely damage one target, only Ph. Karber and B. Hodges.

Independent defense analyst Colby Badhwar says in a post on social network X that the United States could give Ukraine 200 long-range ATACMS missiles, perhaps even more, if the roughly 1,140 “obsolete” missiles in America’s stockpile are still serviceable.

Ukraine also uses other Western-made missiles, but their stockpile is rapidly depleting. The United Kingdom last year provided Ukraine with its highly accurate Storm Shadow cruise missiles, capable of hitting targets as far as 250 kilometers away. London has announced that it will send more to Kyiv.

Over ten days in September 2023, Ukraine used up all of its Storm Shadows on two targets in Crimea: a shipyard and the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. Kyiv destroyed or severely damaged 24 Russian ships in the Black Sea, including the flagship Moskva, which was sunk in April 2022. It was destroyed by a combination of local and western weaponry.

Less than two weeks after the attack on the headquarters, Russia moved the bulk of its Black Sea fleet from Crimea to the country’s port of Novorossiysk.

“The Ukrainians have already shown how much can be done against the Russians in Crimea with very few, but very effective weapons,” Hodges says, referring to the Storm Shadow attacks in Crimea and the subsequent Russian search for a safer place.

In an interview with the Washington Post a month ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that ATACMS would give Ukraine the power to expel Russian air forces from Crimea.

“When Russia knows that we can destroy their planes, they will not attack from Crimea again. The same situation with the Black Sea Fleet. We have already pushed them out of territorial waters. Now we will expel them from the Crimean airports”, said the President of Ukraine.

Mr. Badhwar says that ATACMS, which fly significantly faster than Storm Shadows and can reach a target in just a few minutes, are better suited against such time-sensitive targets as mobile, ground-based air and missile defense systems, ground-based aircraft, logistics elements, artillery and missile launch systems.

According to the expert, for such targets as the Crimean bridge, not ATACMS, but German “Taurus” cruise missiles are more suitable. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far resisted pressure to provide Ukraine with these powerful missiles, although Western officials hope that the US decision to share ATACMS will force German authorities to change their minds.

Now that Ukraine is armed with ATACMS missiles, Mr. Hodges says that Russian forces in Crimea have nowhere to hide. Ukraine’s armed forces know “every square kilometer of the peninsula” very well, he says. While visiting the Munich Security Conference in February, V. Zelenskiy showed US officials the targets he would like to destroy with ATACMS.

“The first important step in liberating Crimea is to make it indefensible. Long-range, highly accurate weapons will give Ukraine such an opportunity,” says B. Hodges.

“There’s really no need to kill all the Russians. You just need to make sure that they don’t have fuel, ammunition and food anymore,” clarified the former commander of US forces in Europe.

While Mr. Badhwar says that Ukraine would very much like to target the ATACMS and Russian military infrastructure in the occupied territories of Ukraine, where Moscow is enjoying progress and building up for a new offensive, Mr. Hogges says that Crimea is key to victory in this case.

“Crimea is what could be called a decisive territory. The one who controls Crimea will win,” says B. Hodges. To temporarily reduce the pressure on Ukrainian forces, it would be enough to simply isolate Crimea by destroying the supply lines. Russian missile and drone attacks from the peninsula would be reduced, and Russian forces in the occupied southern territories would face serious logistical challenges, Hodges added.

Ukraine would be able to free up troops in the south and transfer them to a tougher battle in the east, he believes.

“Without a doubt, the impact would be significantly greater than just defending the Russians.” Such a change would affect the entire war, both psychologically, logistically, and physically,” B. Hodges believes.