War in Ukraine. Russia will not stop: its economy is increasingly dependent on war

Estonia’s Narva City Council is located just a few steps from the border with Russia, in the square named after the Russian Emperor Peter the Great. In Estonia’s third largest city, almost everyone speaks Russian, and every third resident has Russian citizenship, not Estonian, according to The Wall Street Journal.

In 1993, before the Baltic states joined the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Moscow-backed members of the Narva Council held a referendum on regional “autonomy” that could amount to going one-on-one with Russia. Estonia did not recognize this vote as a serious threat to independence and territorial integrity. Local residents 54 percent. votes in favor of the proposal, notes the US publication.

This separatist fervor has at least dissipated for the time being, but the threat posed by Russia has not disappeared. The once busy border bridge over the Narva River has been closed since February. closed to vehicles, part of rapidly deteriorating relations between the two countries. Anti-tank concrete pyramids have been installed on the section of the bridge, which used to be used by local residents to fill up with cheaper Russian gas. Information posted at the Estonian border checkpoint for pedestrian traffic asks people arriving from Russia to share information about threats to Estonian statehood.

A few months after 2022 of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly named Narva, a city of 53,000, historically Russian land. Russia later issued an arrest warrant for Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas over her government’s order to remove monuments to Soviet soldiers. She is the only known head of a foreign country to be on the Kremlin’s wanted list.

Although few expect Russia to launch a military strike against Estonia in the near future, US and European governments are increasingly worried that Putin plans to test the West’s resolve and challenge NATO members, especially the three Baltic countries, if he succeeds in ending the war in Ukraine on favorable terms.

“We know that Russia is aggressive. She is like a murderer: she has intentions and means, she just needs an opportunity,” said Tomas Jermalavičius, head of the research center of the International Center for Defense and Security, based in the Estonian capital Tallinn.

Such concerns were the main reason why US House Speaker Mike Johnson pushed through the $60 billion bill despite opposition from fellow Republicans. USD aid package for Ukraine. “Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he was allowed to,” Johnson said, explaining his support for the funding, which was signed into law by President Joe Biden last week after Senate approval.

Putin has dismissed warnings of a possible Russian attack on NATO members such as Estonia as “complete nonsense”. in 2022 At the beginning of the year, the Kremlin used similar words to mock US warnings that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine.

AFP/”Scanpix” photo/Russian missile strike in Odesa

“The threats are not potential or theoretical,” said Jonatanas Vseviov, Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. – Russia does not hide what goals it is pursuing in this war. This is to control all of Ukraine and fundamentally reshape Europe’s security architecture by creating a kind of buffer zone along its western borders, thereby destroying NATO and the European Union as effective security organizations.”

Officials in Estonia and other Baltic states say they are working to meet the looming challenge, from investments in the military to diplomatic and intelligence efforts. “We are not different because we are always preparing to not be different,” said Major General Ilmar Tamms, commander of the Estonian Defense League, a paramilitary organization that would supplement the regular army in case of war and which has increased its membership and readiness since the invasion of Ukraine. “This is not only a response to Russia, but also a logical preparation for what we will have to do anyway.”

Estonia, where only 1.4 million people live. people, nearly a third of whom are Russian-speaking, are unlikely to resist the Russian army, notes The Wall Street Journal. “If a war breaks out here, it will not be like in Ukraine, because we are such a small country. Our entire population is smaller than the Russian army, Narva Mayor Jaan Toots said. “NATO should protect us.”

Since 2017 The ground forces of other NATO members, including the United States, are stationed in the Baltic countries, and were reinforced after the invasion of Ukraine. There are about 5,000 troops in total, but they are too few to withstand a large-scale military attack, the American publication notes.

Western officials say areas like Narva and the surrounding area of ​​eastern Estonia are the most obvious targets for Russian probes, as well as the Suwalki corridor between Poland and Lithuania and the Russian-speaking territory of eastern Latvia.

in 2022 in June, V. Putin, comparing himself to Peter the Great and saying that both rulers were on a mission to recover the historical lands of Russia, specifically mentioned Narva, where in the 18th century At the beginning of the year, there were two big battles between Russia and Sweden. In his autobiography, he also claimed that his father was allegedly betrayed to the Nazis by Estonian villagers during World War II.

Growing isolationist voices in the US, including former President Donald Trump’s words that he would invite Russia to attack European allies that do not pay enough for NATO protection, have already weakened the alliance’s deterrent power, warned Anton Hofreiter, head of the German Bundestag’s European Union Affairs Committee.

“I worry that due to unclear signals from the West, we can mislead V. Putin and make him think that he can attack without major consequences,” A. Hofreiter said. – Let’s say he attacked Narva and the next day said that it is now part of Russia and is under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, what are you going to do now?

Estonia has already suffered several Russian cyberattacks aimed at paralyzing its infrastructure, and Russian GPS jamming has forced two Finnair planes to abort landings at Tartu airport and turn around in recent days. The Finnish company announced on Monday that it is suspending flights to Tartu.

Some of the most serious cyberattacks have followed political events, such as Estonia’s decision to remove Soviet war memorials or the Estonian parliament’s decision in 2022. declare Russia a terrorist state at the end of the year, said Gertas Auväärts, director of the Estonian National Cyber ​​Security Center.

“Cyber ​​attacks are part of the Kremlin’s diplomatic toolkit,” he said. “They want to send a strong signal that they can disrupt and show that Western societies are unable to ensure the safety of their people.”

Estonian Internal Intelligence Service in February. said it had arrested 10 people recruited by Moscow to incite minor disturbances, including attacks on the cars of the current interior minister and a prominent journalist. She did not provide further information.

“They have already taken the next step – not only a cyber attack, but also a physical attack,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said.

As for the more conventional military threat, Pevkur estimated that Russia would need two to three years to rebuild its forces and be able to seriously challenge NATO. “In the coming months, in the near future, while the war is going on in Ukraine, I don’t see Putin being ready to open a second front,” he said. “It would be a disaster for him.”

H. Pevkur briefly interrupted the interview because he had to intercept the Russian warplanes that had entered the Estonian airspace again, notes the journalist of “The Wall Street Journal”.

Estonia and Latvia, unlike Lithuania, did not grant automatic citizenship to all their residents after regaining independence. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Russian speakers who arrived from the rest of the Soviet Union after World War II and their descendants could choose between remaining stateless, obtaining a Russian passport, or taking language tests to go through the naturalization process.

Residents, regardless of nationality, can vote in local elections, a right the Estonian government is now seeking to remove for Russian and Belarusian nationals, as well as switching from Russian to Estonian in cities such as Narva.

Unlike in the 1990s, when pro-Russian separatist politics posed a serious threat, Estonia’s prosperity as an EU member makes any unrest unattractive even to the most pro-Putin residents, said Katri Raik, who until last September was the mayor of Narva and a former interior minister. minister

While Russian intelligence can find “some homeless Oleg who spends his time drinking beer and manipulate him on Facebook and TikTok, those potential collaborators are few and far between,” she said. “There is no fifth column here,” said K. Raik. “People are not stupid and they know where to live better – here or in Russia.”

However, after more than three decades of independence, Estonian citizens make up less than half of Narva’s population. Although open manifestations of Russian nationalism, such as the black and orange stripes of Georgia, and support for the invasion of Ukraine are banned in Estonia, the sympathies of many city residents go to V. Putin, says the journalist.

“There is a state within a state in Narva, although few people want to admit it,” observed Marija Smorževskich-Smirnova, director of the Narva Museum, who was criticized on local social networks and by some members of the city council for an exhibition in which Soviet troops in 1944 the destruction of historic Narva was compared to Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian cities over the past two years.

Reuters/Scanpix photo/Narva

After the Second World War, almost none of the original Estonian inhabitants returned to the ruins of the city of Narva, and in their place, settlers from Russia built a new city of Soviet apartment buildings.

“When the creation of the independent state of Estonia began, the residents of Narva had another question: the border with Russia is open and right there, why do we need to learn the Estonian language?” said M. Smorževskich-Smirnova.

A Ukrainian refugee who moved to Narva after the large-scale invasion said he follows a rule not to discuss politics with local residents, many of whom support Putin. Although Estonia has banned Russian TV channels from its cable network, its proximity to Russia makes Russian broadcasters and their propaganda readily available to local residents. Very few locals are willing to give interviews, as openly supporting Putin could violate Estonian laws, and criticizing the Russian regime could cause problems across the border.

Nadezhda Shibello, 60, who came to Narva from Siberia in her 20s and still has many relatives in Russia, said she now suffers from nightmares about the coming war.

“Our people keep repeating that V. Putin will come here. I don’t think so, but if something happens, if there is a provocation from the Estonian side, of course, he will not be silent, there will be a response, she said on her return from a shopping trip in Russia. “Actually, I’m very worried.” Estonia is so small, one explosion and everything will be gone.”